From Romanus Ugwu, Abuja
The build-up to the National Convention of the All Progressives Congress (APC) to elect the party’s National Working Committee (NWC) is gradually and steadily climaxing with the scheduling of next month, October 2, as date for the conduct of state congresses across the country.
The ruling party has, unexpectedly, scaled through, to a large extent, the crucibles and hurdles of Ward and Local Government congresses with some noticeable pockets of skirmishes especially among the major stakeholders in various states.
Expectedly, the backlash almost took the shine off the exercise in some states, resulting in the conduct of parallel congresses and emergence of parallel executives while in others, the congresses deepened the initial crises tearing apart the party.
Amidst the endless controversies, the congresses conducted so far have expectedly turned out a mixed grill of beauty and ugliness. In almost all the six geo-political zones, the exercise was either a celebration of success or manifestation of crises, threats of boycott, litigation, use of brute force, intimidation, deaths, hijack of materials and lamentably conducts of parallel congresses.
While the situation was mild and relatively peaceful in some states, there were still heightened tensions in others like Rivers, Kwara, Enugu, Ekiti, Osun, Ogun, Abia, Benue, Kano, Katsina, Gombe among many others. In some states, brute display of survival of fittest, battle royal and fight to finish were deployed which resulted in ugly incidents.
Though the leadership of the party has reactively responded to stem the tide of crisis escalating with the setting up of both Appeals Committee and the yet to be inaugurated Senator Abdullahi Adamu-led reconciliation committee, the implication of the crisis situation is that the build up to the party’s National Convention may perhaps be resting on a faulty foundation.
However, the crisis situation emanating from the congresses may perhaps be a child’s play compared with the much awaited intrigue over which geopolitical zone that will produce the next national leadership of the party, most especially the National Chairman.
Already, fear of implosion of the party is palpable for understandable reasons that the National Convention and by extension the election of the national leadership will decide the trajectory for the 2023 presidential ticket and the zone to produce the next president after Muhammadu Buhari.
Ordinarily, the fear of implosion is unwarranted if not for the fear of the strategies of the political parties, especially the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), will deploy, to wrest power from the ruling party.
In the delicate balancing of the North and South zoning, the APC leadership and stakeholders, explicitly, have carefully continued to foot-drag on the conduct of its national convention for the ostensible reason to know which zone the opposition party will settle for to produce the 2023 presidential candidate.
Apparently, in the thinking of both parties, should the opposition settle for a Southern National Chairman, it automatically means zoning the presidential ticket to the North and vice-versa. The cautious delay in conducting the convention by both parties has so much to do with the politics of the 2023 presidential ticket.
To many political watchers, in the thinking of the ruling party, if it must retain power beyond 2023, it may be counterproductive to gamble settling for a Southern candidate if the opposition party is picking a Northern candidate.
Cognizant of this delicate balancing, it will look, on the surface, as if the ruling party is deliberately dilly-dallying to enable it to monitor the zoning intrigue in the camp of the opposition, but realistically, there are undercurrents playing out behind the door.
Part of the manoeuvring is the latent cold war turmoil in the South East APC camp. In its stakeholders meeting recently, the party’s dangling of a carrot for the zone to produce the party’s national chairmanship position was such a contentious issue because such was a ploy to block any possibility of the zone producing the 2023 presidential candidate.
A chieftain of the party in the zone who attended the meeting told Daily Sun that while some opted for the chairmanship ticket, others insisted on the position of National Secretary.
“I can tell you on good authority that we were sharply divided during our last South East APC stakeholders meeting recently when we considered the options of either taking the party’s National chairmanship position or National Secretary. But many opposed the chairmanship because it will apparently limit or foreclose the chances of our zone contesting for the presidential ticket of the party.
“Those in favour had argued that we settle for the chairmanship instead of losing out in the equation completely since it is becoming a remote possibility zoning the presidential ticket to South East, while others were favourably disposed that we settle the position of National Secretary to leave our chances of contesting for the presidential ticket open,” the South East APC chieftain told Daily Sun in confidence.
As the intrigues and build-up continue to intensify, there are clear indications that the North may have tactically opted out of the presidential ticket as most of the aspirants for the national chairmanship position with the line-up comprising former governors like Abdul Aziz Yari of Zamfara, Al-Makura of Nasarawa, Ali Modu Sheriff, George Akume among many others came from either the North East or North Central.
However, open declaration of interests for the 2023 presidency from notable heavyweight political figures from the zone indicates that there is still a serious battle ahead and a big question mark trailing zoning arrangement in the camp of the ruling party.
Interestingly, the zoning intrigue may get messier with some heavyweight politicians from the South tacitly indicating interests to contest the 2023 presidency. For now, the Prof Yemi Osinbajo and Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu factors still remain a force to contend with that is also capable of deepening the 2023 APC zoning intrigue.
Again, there is also the trending alleged option of certain cabals in the presidency lobbying former president Goodluck Jonathan to pick the ticket on joining the ruling party, do only a term and return power to the North.
More importantly, the speculated determination by notable political figures from the North to ensure APC retains power beyond 2023 combined to complicate the zoning intrigue and the challenge of the ruling party to solve the riddle of which zone that will get what position.
“All the delays are part of the intrigues to monitor the activities going on in the camp of the opposition party. I can tell you for free that APC major stakeholders may have foreclosed any possibility of giving the presidential ticket to the South East.
“You also know that picking a presidential candidate from the South may be APC’s biggest undoing should the PDP settle for a Northern candidate. That may perhaps be why they are seriously considering the option of former president Jonathan who will serve only one term so that power can return to the North,” a party chieftain quipped in a chat with Daily Sun.
Only recently, the Caretaker/Extraordinary Convention Planning Committee defended the speculations that it is foot-dragging in rounding off for a new NWC through the National Secretary, Senator John James Akpanudoedehe, who warned that engaging speed gear for the process will tantamount to implosion of the party.
“There is no truth in the claim that we are deliberately foot-dragging. I ask you, how many weeks do you need to buy forms, fill the forms, submit them, face screening and discharge the appeals? If we engage the speed gear, we may destroy the party.
“There are processes involved in conducting congresses and we are following those processes. You cannot build a strong foundation on sandy soil. This is the most tolerable government and party I have even seen in my life. We have done what no other political party has done in this country by conducting credible and relatively peaceful congresses to build the party bottom up with the masses,” he said.
Asked why APC has not decided on zoning even with the conclusion of the Ward, LG congresses and state congresses a few weeks away, he replied that many stakeholders, especially President Buhari, will be the major deciders.
“There must be something wrong with me if I speak authoritatively on the issue of which geopolitical zone gets what. There is a hierarchy in the party that must meet to take such a decision. We will strategise when the President meets with other major stakeholders to deliberate and decide on the zoning ahead of 2023 general elections,” he said.
Even as the party’s chief scribe is not forthcoming with tangible information regarding the zoning arrangement, a chieftain of the party very close to the Caretaker Committee who spoke to Daily Sun in confidence confirmed the speculation that the party may have zoned the presidential ticket to the Southern part of the country.
Dismissing the narrative of a hatchet plan by the North to retain the power instead of losing it to the opposition party, he argued that they are also afraid of the implosion of the party, adding that they are also aware that history has proven they cannot do it alone despite their population advantage.
“They don’t have a choice than to concede the 2023 presidential ticket to the South. Forget the narrative that they will exploit the population advantage; they also know that the population alone cannot do it. Otherwise, if it were possible, the President would have achieved that when he contested three times without success until he reached out and got the endorsement of the political structure of Southerners.
“Again and more importantly, the North doesn’t just have any outstanding political figure with cult following like Buhari to win the presidential election standing alone without the support and blessings of the same political structure provided to Buhari. Yes, they may claim ownership of the party and population advantage of the voting public but they don’t have any outstanding politician to win an election should they decide to ruffle feathers and stand alone in the 2023 presidential election.
“Conceding the ticket to the South East may obviously be out of it, but mark my word, the ticket must certainly be zoned to the South. The wisest thing the North can do is to fill somebody with political clout as the Vice President. Don’t forget that Northern politicians can smartly know when to buckle and when to hold tenaciously at something. If they notice that the Southerners are not yielding to concede the position, they will chicken out, restrategise on how to reclaim the power in the nearest future,” our source argued passionately.
Head or tail, the much awaited decision of zoning of critical positions in the party apparently seems to be a sword of Damocles dangling on the neck of the party ahead of the 2023 presidential election and the diplomacy deployed in handling it will be the major determinant of the future or fortune of the ruling party beyond the 2023 polls.
Judging by the determination of the ruling party and in accordance with present reality of a good number of political figures from the North opting for the party’s national chairmanship position while party leaders from the South are jostling for the presidential ticket, the battle, many described as deadly, may have been settled and concluded even before the zoning intrigues get to the dialogue table.