By Nuraddeen M. Auwal
The political contest for the office of the President of Nigeria is gathering momentum. In the midst of all the political turbulence, there is a need to step back and identify some fundamental trends in order to achieve some level of clarity. My analysis is bareknuckle in addition to being non-partisan. It is my personal appraisal. I set out a premise, conduct analysis and arrive at conclusion, which predicts the outcome of the presidential election.
There are four major contenders for the number one office. Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC, Peter Obi of the LP and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the NNPP.
Like is the practice in other political climes, we do not have to wait for the actual election to try to ascertain the electoral potential of the candidates.
To win in the first round of election, a candidate must obtain the majority of votes nationwide as well as at least 25% of the votes in at least 24 out of 36 states (and the FCT). In the event that none of the candidates is able to fulfil these conditions, then a run-off election will be held whereby the winner will be decided by simple majority votes.
It is my considered opinion that election into the office of the President in 2023 will be primarily and strongly influenced by religious and tribal sentiments (facilitated by party infrastructure); other factors will only play a secondary role. This statement will be particularly valid in the entire northern Nigeria (19 states), the whole of South East (five states) and the whole of South West (six states). Although tribe and religion will play some role in the South-South (six states), they will not be as decisive as in the other three zones; other factors (party affiliation, incumbency, political leaders/heavyweights, local politics, perceived performance-potential of candidates, etc) may play some roles.
Let us boldly embark on an evaluation of the electoral chances of the major contenders, starting with Peter Obi:
It is fairly certain that Obi will get overwhelming share of the votes of the Igbo wherever they reside in Nigeria. This will assure him majority in the five South-East states.
Obi will also get overwhelming share of the votes from the northern Christian population in all the 19 states. This will assure him majority of votes in the two Christian states of Benue and Plateau as well as significant share of votes in Taraba.
My prediction is that the votes in the South-South states will be shared between the trio of Obi, Atiku and Tinubu.
The deep schism in the PDP spearheaded by Governor Nyesom Wike is potentially a major drag on their electoral fortunes in this region. On the whole, the situation is so fluid in this part of the country, it is difficult to predict with the same degree of certainty as it is in other parts of Nigeria.
In summary, Obi’s electoral fortunes are strongly influenced by tribal (Igbo) and religious (in northern Nigeria) sentiments.
As it is so often in life, his strength is also his weakness. The two factors (tribe and religion) severely limits his chances of breaking beyond these enclaves. His attempts of building alliance with other political forces have failed. His choice of running mate who is unlikely to add any electoral value underlines his limited chances beyond the boundaries stated above.
Atiku’s main strength emanates from the broad, nationwide political structure of the PDP as well as the fact that he comes from the Muslim Hausa/Fulani ethnic bloc with favorable sentiment in most of the 19 northern states. It should be pointed out that, unlike Buhari in the 2011, 2015 and 2019 elections, Atiku, for a variety of complex socio-cultural factors, does not enjoy the fanatical support of the Hausa/Fulani ethnic stock. Atiku and his team also have the advantage of experience in electoral contests at the presidential level. These factors make him one of the truly viable contenders.
Tinubu’s main strength emanates from two principal sources. First is the fact that he comes from the Yoruba ethnic group and will enjoy overwhelming support of the entire South West (six states) voters. Beyond being a Yoruba, Tinubu, over the last two decades or so, has practically demonstrated that he maintains a stranglehold over the politics of the South West. The second source of his strength comes from unequivocal support of the APC governors, particularly in the northern states. It is no secret that the governors in these states (indeed all other states throughout the country) have contrived to tightly control the politics in their respective states. Their potential influence in the presidential and other elections cannot be overemphasized. These two factors make Tinubu one of the truly viable contenders.
Our analysis so far has led us to a first-stage conclusion that the 2023 presidential election will be essentially a contest between Tinubu and Atiku, with the other candidates playing the role of boosting or limiting the chances of either of the two main contenders.
The southern part of Nigeria is predominantly Christian; hence Muslims are a minority. Ironically, Christians are numerically a minority among the Yoruba, but they are by far the more dominant half.
Tinubu is a Muslim. In his practical adherence to Islamic tenets, he is as weak a Muslim as you would ever meet. His wife as well as some of his children are strong Christians. His wife is indeed a pastor. One would expect that, if there is a Muslim that Christians would feel at home with, it is Tinubu. However, by Nigeria’s electoral logic, Tinubu is a southerner and a Muslim. In the North-South context, he carries the burden of being a minority.
Tinubu (with the backing of northern governors and the APC party structure) emerged as the presidential candidate. He had to pick a running mate from the North to make a winnable ticket.
Northern Christians will not vote a Tinubu because he is backed by the Muslim North. Northern Christians never vote on the same side with Muslim northerners; electoral results data emphatically supports this fact.
If it is the desire of northern Christians to weaken and possibly defeat the Muslim/Muslim ticket, it has the opposite effect. The Northern Muslims whose vote a presidential candidate cannot do without seem to resolve that they will set aside all other consideration to make sure that the Muslim/Muslim ticket wins. They believe that the Northern Christians have turned the contest into a religious one, even though they knew Tinubu’s decision to pick a Muslim was a tactical one, no more no less.
Many analyst of all political leanings have made similar analysis to the one I have presented above.
The two candidates mirror one another in terms of their strengths and weaknesses.
They both have deep enough pockets to compete. They both have exhibited unrelenting desire for what they have set out to achieve. They also match each other in terms of their strategic acuity.
On the weaknesses side of the equation, they both are not bubbling with energy and vigor as a result of advanced age and medical conditions. Neither of them can be described as an orator; they struggle to express themselves persuasively. In terms of perceived personal integrity, they both are carrying a baggage of reputational risk primarily because it is widely believed that they both made their fortunes through government patronage.
The overall conclusion on this stage of the analysis is that neither Atiku nor Tinubu holds any significant edge on account of his personal strength or weakness. The battle will be fought in opportunities and threats.
For Atiku, the major opportunity he could potentially harness is his belonging to the largest ethnic bloc in Nigeria. The Hausa/Fulani ethnic group is so large, so dominant that no candidate could possibly win a presidential election in Nigeria without their significant support; other ethnic blocs could only play complementary roles. However, although Atiku comes from this dominant group, he may not be able to optimally exploit its potential for three major reasons. First is the fact that, for some socio-psychological reasons, he does not evoke the necessary native appeal or passion among the Hausa/Fulani populace. I do not pretend to know exactly what these reasons are, but I have no doubt that he does not simply have that emotional connection with the Hausa/Fulani ethnic group. I know that his followers may disagree with me on this point, but the ultimate proof will be revealed by the results of the poll. The second reason he may not succeed in harnessing the Hausa/Fulani ethnic factor is the support of the northern governors for Tinubu and their resolve to work for the success of the APC candidate. It is a well-established fact that most governors in Nigeria tend to have a firm grip of the politics in their states. Hence the influence of the northern governors is a factor not to be taken lightly. The third factor, which will inhibit Atiku from harnessing the ethnic element, is the influence of Kashim Shettima (Bola Tinubu’s running mate) in two of the North-East states (Borno and Yobe). Being a Kanuri and a former governor with considerable following, his influence will dominate electoral results in these two states more than any other northern state.
If my analysis and projection turn out to be accurate, then the electoral fortunes for Atiku will be considerably diminished. The second opportunity that should be available for Atiku to harness is the nationwide PDP political infrastructure. This could have been a portent weapon because it would avail him the necessary national spread that is crucial for success. However, its influence is almost completely nullified by Obi in the South-East and Wike (and his G5 colleagues) in the South-South. These are the threats that Atiku faces. As at the time of writing these notes, efforts to bring back into the PDP fold the rebellious governors had not yielded fruit. Notwithstanding these negative influences, Atiku still remains a formidable foe.
ForTinubu, the ethnic opportunity comes in the shape of dominant followership in the six Yoruba South-West states. Although some Yoruba political heavyweights initially rose in opposition to his candidature, but this appears to be wilting. The South-West is Bola Tinubu’s secure base where he will likely garner nothing less than 80% of the votes. His other opportunity is the incumbency factor at the federal level and the support of the northern governors, which precipitated his emergence as the APC presidential candidate. The other opportunity handed to Bola Tinubu is the vociferous opposition of the northern Christian coalition to the Muslim/Muslim ticket. Rather than take away votes from the APC candidate, the campaign against Muslim/Muslim ticket plays right into the hands of Tinubu. The undisputable fact is that, no matter the religious composition of the APC ticket, the northern Christians, as a group, had never voted for any party supported or dominated by northern Muslims. The results of the six presidential elections (1999 to date) emphatically support this assertion. Therefore the opposition to the so-called Muslim/Muslim ticket is simply yet another excuse to vote against Muslim majority. In the context of the 2023 presidential race, it amounts an oblique campaign for Tinubu and against Atiku. The northern Muslim population views the opposition to Muslim/Muslim ticket as a deliberate and cynical affront and a challenge. The opposition is based on something that is not what it is purported to be and, therefore, would be expected to strengthen (rather than weaken) their support for the Muslim/Muslim ticket.
Final conclusion/prediction
From the analysis presented above, I predict that, as the night follows the day, Tinubu will emerge the winner of the 2023 presidential election. May Allah continue to guide and protect us all.
•Dr. Auwal is a management consultant in Abuja