Tony Osauzo, Benin
With barely 24 hours to the presidential and National Assembly elections, political watchers in Edo State are busy forecasting the likely outcome of these elections in the state controlled by the All Progressives Congress (APC).
To begin an analysis of how voters are likely to vote and which party will emerge victorious, it is necessary to take a look at what happened in 2015 and some of the factors that influenced the outcome in the only state under the control of the APC in the South-South region of the country.
Apart from the three Senatorial seats each state has on equality basis, Edo has nine House of Representatives seats and a 24-member House of Assembly.
In the 2015 elections, the PDP won about 58 percent votes in the presidential election; two of the three Senatorial seats; five of the nine House of Representatives seats and four of the 24 State Assembly seats. Governorship election did not take place as the then incumbent; Adams Oshiomhole was yet to complete his tenure.
From the outcome of the election results, the PDP won the presidential and National Assembly elections, while the APC won the State Assembly polls. Factors that were said to have inand this would afford the electorate in Edo to make their choice of the candidate to vote for, on a more rational basis.
As in the 2015 elections, the influence of money may not have such impact this year. Daily Sun investigations revealed that so far, there appear to be low flow of cash at campaign rallies across board. Perhaps, the commitment of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), to check vote-buying on election day could assist in reducing the influence of money on the outcome of the elections. That, however, remains to be seen, observers say.
At the Senatorial level, the Edo North ticket held by Senator Francis Alimikhena, is expected to be retained by the APC. Apart from being predominantly APC, the Etsako, the populous ethnic group, are particularly appreciative of the transformation of their area during the administration of Adams Oshiomhole and are expected to reward him and his party.
In Edo Central, it will be a tough battle between incumbent Senator Clifford Ordia of the PDP, a strong politician, and John Inegbedion of the APC. Late Chief Anthony Anenih had a towering influence in the politics of this Senatorial District and no doubt, his death will be a minus for the PDP, which has also lost some of its key members to the APC in this area.
Notwithstanding, the PDP has its strongest base in the state in Edo Central Senatorial district and may want to maintain this. But the APC on the other hand, is poised to show its strength by ensuring total victory to strengthen its bid for the governorship of the state at the expiration of the eight-year term of Edo South. This is why the outcome of the elections in Edo Central would be exciting to many.
The contest for the Edo South Senatorial ticket between incumbent Senator Matthew Urhoghide and Patrick Obahiagbon, a former lawmaker of the state and National Assembly, is also expected to be tough, pundits say. This is so because some members of the APC are aggrieved that they have been sidelined in the scheme of things, especially in the emergence of many of the party’s candidates and are therefore, non-committal.
Many however, believe that the sitting governor, Mr. Godwin Obaseki’s performance so far and his determination for Edo to remain in the mainstream of national politics, may swing victory for the APC candidate. Besides, the governor who promised to deliver one million votes for President Muhammadu Buhari has intensified mobilisation for the party’s candidates to ensure their victory at the polls.