By ISIAKA YAHAYA
No doubt, Nigeria is confronted with the unpleasant realities of economic recession having witnessed a period of economic decline in two successive quarters of 2016. The word ‘recession’ has unconsciously crept into our national lexicon as a key word in private and public discourse. Recession is indeed a painful reality that has not only placed severe strains and stress on the citizens but also made governments at all levels to re-order priorities to perceived critical areas of needs. For most government agencies and their programmes, economic recession is a bitter pill they have to swallow as they are confronted with stiff competition for the ever dwindling government resources. The case of the National Population Commission and its pet project for the next census is not an exception.
Understandably, the tendency in a recessive economy is to focus on short term palliative programmes that will impact on the living standard of the people and mitigate its negative impacts. The bulk of government resources goes into social welfare programmes, construction or rehabilitation of infrastructure such as roads, electricity, transportation, job creation and of course, payment of salaries. The allocation of resources to the collection of vital demographic data required for planning purposes even if they are time bound such as the conduct of population census is considered a luxury which can wait till a more convenient time simply because its outcomes are not tangible.
However, this short term response to recession has its limitations. First, it treats recession as a purely economic phenomenon neglecting its more enduring social dimension particularly the human elements. Indicators on economic recession are not just mere figures but concrete realities that affect human lives. The people are basically the victims of recession who have to contend with its consequences such as unemployment, food shortages, job loss, inflation, inadequate access to social facilities etc. There is no way the implications of the recession on the people can be fully understood unless a census is conducted.
Economic revival programme must be for the people by the people and for the people. In other words, the people must be the agents and beneficiaries of the economic revival programme. It must be for the people in the sense that the welfare of the people particularly the need to improve the living standard of the people must be the driving force of the recovery programme. The people must also be the active participants in the effort to get out of the recession and of course by the people means that the people must be the leading agent. The need to make the economic recovery programme people-oriented therefore places the demographic factors at the centre of the economic recovery programme. There must be adequate knowledge of the population size, characteristics and of the composition of the population and census being the most comprehensive source of demographic information of the country offers the best way to formulate and implement people-friendly economic revival programmes.
Conducting census in a recessive economy cannot be a luxury but an absolute necessity. There is no better time to conduct a census than this period of economic recession. Coming out of a recession is definitely a complex and difficult task that can be made easier through demographic data as a compass for economic revival programmes. Census will serve as guide in identifying human elements that can be exploited for development process and formulation of development programmes.
A census is the primary source of information about the population size, composition and characteristics of a country. Its strength and distinctiveness arise from complete coverage, continuity of statistics from census to census and the details it provides about individuals in local areas and population subgroups. No other data source meets these needs. A census also provides the baseline for demographic data that are crucial for sectoral planning. Data gaps are inevitable without a recent census and the lack of basic population data will lead to serious policy and resource allocation distortions. Though recession does not directly affect the population profile of the country, it does have decisive impacts on key demographic profiles such as population distribution, dependency ratio, employment rates, literacy rates, household characteristics and its access to facilities and amenities. It goes without saying, therefore, that any attempt to address Nigeria’s economic problems must proceed with a deeper understanding of its population structure, how it has been affected by recession and what can be done to ameliorate the ways recession has worsened the population situation. This, therefore, makes the case for the conduct of the census in this period of economic recession an absolute necessity rather than a luxury that can be shifted to a more ‘convenient time’.
Efforts to revive the Nigerian economy from the brink of collapse must be informed by the concrete needs of the people. The human elements must be taken into account and properly addressed. The recovery efforts must provide answers to questions such as how unemployment rate has increased dependency ratio. What has been the pattern of migration, internal and external, occasioned by recession? How has loss of income by many families affected the pattern of household spending? What has happened to their access to facilities such as electricity, water supply and sanitation? In what ways have job losses and difficulties in payment of teachers salaries affected the literacy level? In what ways are challenges in the health sector affecting access to reproductive health and consequently maternal and child mortality? Are the harsh economic realities promoting early marriages and thus higher fertility? Do families still have access to reproductive health commodities and information? These are demographic questions of the economic recession that must be addressed if the recovery programmes must be sustainable and purposefully relevant to the aspirations of the people.
However, providing answers to these key issues will not come through any other source than the census which is the primary source of information on the population size, composition and characteristics of the country. For census to fulfil these roles, it must be current and reflect current realities. The last census was conducted in 2006 and the population size of Nigeria has undergone tremendous transformation not only in terms of size but also composition, distribution and characteristics. There is no way a census conducted 10 years ago will be adequate to confront the realities of 2016. The task of economic recession is too complex and risky to be purely based on administrative records and sample surveys that are not capable of capturing the human impacts of the economic recession in its diverse nature and complexities. It is in this regard that the 2018 Census must be the desirable compass that will guide Nigeria out of the current economic recession and usher a new era of sustainable economic growth and development and improve the living standard of the citizenry.
Dr. Yahaya is a Deputy Director of Public Affairs at the headquarters of the National Population Commission, Abuja.