From Ndubuisi Orji, Abuja
It all started at the Senate plenary on July 27. The Senate minority leader, Philip Aduda, after an executive session of the Red Chamber had sought to get the parliament to discuss the deteriorating security situation in the country, against the backdrop of attacks within the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). However, the Senate President, Ahmad Lawan ruled him out of order.
Exasperated by the development, the opposition lawmakers staged a walk out from the plenary. After the walk out, the minority caucus, at a press briefing, issued a six weeks ultimatum to President Buhari to address the worsening security situation in the country or risk impeachment.
Aduda, flanked by his colleagues, at a press briefing, immediately after the walk out, had explained that “we went into a closed-door session on the state of insecurity in Abuja and took cognisance that Nigeria is no longer safe.”
He added: “We agreed in the closed session that we will give President Muhammadu Buhari an ultimatum but the Senate President, Dr Ahmad Ibrahim Lawan didn’t want us to raise the issue. However, we have issued six weeks for President Buhari to resolve insecurity or be impeached.”
The following day the minority caucus in the House of Representatives, threw its weight behind its Senate counterpart. House minority leader, Ndudi Elumelu, speaking at a press briefing, after a joint meeting of the two caucuses, said the opposition lawmakers in the Green chamber are on the same page with their Senate counterparts in the quest to show the President the exit door, if he fails to act on the security situation in the country, at the expiration of the ultimatum.
“We are asking Mr President to address the insecurity in this country within six to eight weeks unless we will find the constitutional means to ensure that we will serve him impeachment notice,” Elumelu stated.
Nevertheless, the Presidency, in a statement by the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media, Garba Shehu, dismissed the walk out as “performative and babyish antics”, and admonished the lawmakers to channel their energy in addressing the challenges confronting the country.
Shehu said “rather than making a mockery out of voters by trying to imitate what they see in America, the opposition would be well advised that their time would be better spent tackling the pressing issues Nigerians face, such as the current global cost of living crisis. Their continued failure to do so goes some way to explaining why they remain in opposition.”
Since the minority caucus in the National Assembly threatened to impeach President Muhammadu Buhari, if he fails to address the deteriorating security situation in the country within eight weeks, there have been some sort of frenzy in the polity, with stakeholders expressing divergent views.
However, beyond the frenzy, the question is how far can the opposition go? Do the lawmakers have the wherewithal, in terms of number, and the political will to go through the entire impeachment process, the support of the leadership as well as the luxury of time?
Three hurdles to impeaching President Buhari
Basically, there are three major hurdles which the lawmakers must scale before they can succeed in the quest to sack President Buhari. These include securing 2/3 support, the support of the leadership, as well as the timing.
Section 143( 2) of the 1999 constitution (as Amended) stipulates that 1/ 3 of the members of the National Assembly can initiate an impeachment proceedings against the President or the Vice President. While Section 143 (4) of the constitution provides that the President or Vice can only be removed by office by 2/3 of the membership of the two chambers of the National Assembly.
There are currently 109 members of the National Assembly and 360 members of the House of Representatives. The implications are that 37 and 120 members are required to initiate the impeachment proceedings in the Senate and House respectively. But for the move to succeed, it must be supported by 74 senators and 240 House members.
However, there are presently 45 opposition members in the Senate and about 140 members of the opposition in the Green chamber. Though some of the National Assembly across parties are speculated to have dumped their political parties, in the aftermath of the primaries, most of the affected members are yet to inform the parliament formally.
Analysts say judging by its numerical strength, the opposition lawmakers can only initiate the impeachment proceedings, but does not have the number to push it through. A school of thought also argue that the timing of the impeachment may also work against the move, especially as campaigns for the 2023 polls will be starting in September, same time the lawmakers might be expected to commence proceedings to sack the President, in the event, he does not take decisive steps to improve security in the country as demanded by the minority caucus.
However, Elumelu insists that that would pose a challenge, as the move to oust the president allegedly enjoys a bipartisan support.
According to the House minority leader, “upon expiration, we will prefer ways of ensuring we will gather all the signatures—let me make it clear, for those who are thinking it is an issue of only PDP or Minority caucus, no, many of our colleagues, under the ‘bipartisanship’—all of them are affected. All of them are affected—many of them. So, they may not be speaking but we will be speaking for them.”
Nevertheless, Chike Okafor, an APC member of the House from Imo State, told Daily Sun that the members of the ruling party will not have anything to do with the impeachment move. Okafor stated the majority caucus is set to trade tackles with the minority caucus over the issues.
“We will not join forces with them. We will not support them. We have the numbers. You know what they say that the minority ‘will have its say, but majority also will always have its way.’
At the end of the day, it will come down to numbers. We, the APC members of the House are convinced that the government is honest and sincere about the decision and approach to keep Nigeria safe and make life better for us.
“We are not going to keep our eyes open and allow them. We have the numbers. We will out number them. If it is about speaking grammar, we will speak grammar. If it is about quoting law, we will quote laws.”
Nevertheless, there are indications that some aggrieved members of the APC might be working with the opposition on the impeachment.
Ironically, Sergius Ogun, a PDP member from Edo State, told Daily Sun that the threat to impeach President Buhari is dead on arrival, as the opposition caucus does not have the number nor the luxury of time to push it through.
Ogun said” We don’t have the number. Not in the Senate. Not in the House. It will not work. We don’t have the number one. Two, Section 143(11), the interpretation of gross misconduct is one of the grounds for impeachment; if you look at that, it is said that in the opinion of the National Assembly, what constitutes gross misconduct.
“So, if we go on that, the minimum time it will take is four and half months. Minimum; if the President of the Senate is willing and the speaker is willing. The minimum would be four and half months.
“If they are unwilling, it can take the day that you are handing over to the next president. So, it is an exercise in futility. What they are trying to do is to get the man’s attention. Which is very good. But to say that we have the time, the four and half months will take us into February. And election is in February. By February, who would be interested in impeaching the president that would be handing over in three months? The idea is dead on arrival. It would not work. It is a waste of time and effort. “
However, analysts say beyond the numbers, the hurdle the opposition lawmakers would have to scale is getting the support of the leadership of the two chambers, as well as the political will by individual members to see the matter to its logical conclusion. It falls on the leadership to ensure that any motion coming to the parliament is slated for debate.
Pundits say it would be easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for the Senate and House leadership as presently constituted to support the impeachment of President Buhari. This is especially as the National Assembly leadership is always careful on issues relating to the President.
Since the inception of the ninth assembly, the federal legislature has entertained several motions on insecurity in the country, with far reaching resolutions. In fact, in the last three years, the issue of insecurity is the most debated matter in the be Green Chamber but very few of the resolutions reached by the House are implemented by the Executive. Ironically, the parliament is unable to press for the implementation of the motions.
For instance, in the aftermath of killing of 43 rice farmers in Borno by insurgents in December 2020, the House had invited President Buhari to brief it on the security situation in the country. Though the Presidency gave an indication that the President would honour the invite, on the D-Day, the president failed to appear before the House. And there was no official communication to the parliament to the effect. Despite angst by members over the issue, the speaker, Femi Gbajabiamila blocked efforts to discuss the matter.
Analysts say it is not unlikely that the same scenario would play out, in the event that the opposition lawmakers make do their threat. However, time would tell how the entire issue would pan out.