BY BILLY NWOYE
The twelfth governor of Lagos State Bola Ahmed Tinubu who has been the “National Leader of the APC since its formation in 2013” wants to succeed Major General Buhari as the next president in 2023.
Tinubu’s victory at the APC primaries is the beginning of his many problems at trying to win the general election. Clearly, Tinubu has a bumpy path to navigate in this race.
First, he was not the consensus candidate announced by the APC Party Chairman Senator Abdullahi Adamu. Second, Tinubu and his supporters were unapologetic of denying Northeast which is the only region in Nigeria that has never produced a military or civilian head of State.
The announcement of the Senate President Lawal as consensus candidate signaled that some leaders in APC recognized the injustice meted to the North East especially if you consider the degree terrorism has decimated the lives and economy of the region for over a decade and counting.
Thirdly, Tinubu on his acceptance speech showed no humility in victory instead he is on a vengeance mission after defying the odds to clinch the ticket. With the “It’s my turn to revenge” speech, he fired the first shot at Mr. President whose bullet proof glass could not protect from being insulted and humiliated by those daring comments. Tinubu’s emergence was particularly a massive embarrassment for APC party chairman Senator Adamu who had earlier announced a different person as the consensus candidate for the party.
There was no joy in his face as Tinubu struggled to hold the flag on his victory night while Senator Adamu looked visibly despondent. If Tinubu wins the general election, chances are that Senator Adamu might not last as the party chairman because the joy of Tinubu’s victory was not shared by many in the party leadership.
What it means now is that the first battle Tinubu must win before the general election is the confidence of the party faithful. APC is experiencing top to bottom haemorrhage of members as they are decamping to PDP.
There are seven reasons why Tinubu will not succeed Buhari as the next President of Nigeria.
I will start with reason number 7 why Tinubu APC cannot win the general election. Since the return to democracy, Southwest has occupied the office of the President and Vice President for sixteen of the twenty three years since we returned to democratic rule in 1999. A Tinubu victory will distance the southeastern chance of clinching the office of the presidency for another sixteen years, that’s nearly two decades out.
The sixth reason why APC should be defeated in the next February election is because of their unrepentant attitude to telling lies. Dishonesty may be pardonable on a campaign trail but not in governance. For seven years, the APC has been good in cover ups and telling lies. For the Buhari administration, it was easier for them than admitting truth. A foundation built on lies can never last. Nigerians are tired of these lies and are prepared to get the APC to crumble. Tinubu cannot distance himself from countless lies and failed promises he made to Nigerians trying to sell Buhari and his failing government to Nigerians. The only truth is that Tinubu is Buhari, Buhari is APC and APC is Tinubu, hence the title National leader. However Tinubu’s clever attempt now to rebrand his image is like changing your name from water to ice cube.
The reason number 5 why APC will be defeated in the polls in 2023 is because APC Next Level agenda brought next level of extreme poverty and runaway inflation. In fact the situation is akin to stagflation, the worst in the history of this country in peace time. Extreme poverty midwifed by Tinubu’s APC is here. According to Statista,44.7 million men and 43.7 million women in any given day in Nigeria earn less than N1,200 to survive hunger and hardship under the Tinubu APC government. The world Bank in 2019 reported that about 87 million Nigerians live in absolute poverty. Adding to this report, a business daily published that six people fall into poverty every minute in Nigeria. So before you finish reading this article in four minutes or less, up to twenty four people in Nigeria would be classified as extremely poor based on global standards, thanks to Tinubu APC. Just imagine what the figure would look like in 2023 since Tinubu like other aspirants before the APC primaries, were showering Buhari with praises not blames. The simple truth is that Tinubu gets credit as major architect of APC formation, he must accept his biggest failure with the performance of APC in the last seven years as a recognized national leader of the party.
The reason number 4 Tinubu APC will lose this election in 2023 is because Major General Buhari, the Commander n Chief of the Armed forces failed to secure the country from insurgency which was one of the most important reason why Nigerians considered him in 2015. 7 years after, the security situation has become worse. The North-West has been overrun by bandits, farmers have been chased from their farms all over the country, Boko-haram is still very much around and ISWAP has found their way to the south west while the south east is under siege. The level of insecurity in Nigeria has made mass burial a common event. To be fair to the Tinubu APC, the death and dying under their watch has created a prospering service economy for under takers, i.e, coffin makers, mortuaries, breweries, etc. Nigerians will not make the mistake of having another 8 years of the merchants of death that Tinubu’s APC has been.
The reason number 3 why Tinubu APC will lose the general election is because Tinubu is visibly not healthy looking. The office of the President is not a cooling van but a pressure cooker. Once beaten twice shy. In fact, this is more than once. Firstly, Nigerians remember a frank leader called Yar’adua. We mourned his death as President while in office. The illness of Yar’adua made it easier for his government to be hijacked by cabals. Today managing Major General Buhari health as President has been a major drain to our national reserve. His frequent health vacation has also led to his government being hijacked by cabals. The parking fee alone of the presidential jet at an international airport is massive. We can’t begin to count the cost of his absence in governance which was the impetus First Lady Aisha Buhari cried out to complain that Buhari administration has been hijacked by cabals. With Tinubu’s health, it is obvious that he wouldn’t be able to perform his presidential responsibilities. There will be so many gaps and the government will be hijacked by cabals. Nigerians do not want another government of the cabals, for the cabals and by the cabals.
The reason number 2 why Tinubu APC will not win the general election in 2023 is because it’s payback time. Millions of Nigerians are angry and furious. Enduring the long queue and stress to register to vote or collect the PVC is a testament of how the population is activated in angry revenge.
In Tinubu’s own words, IT’S TIME FOR REVENGE, because Nigerians will stone APC by voting enmass to dethrone the present government. It will be a Sweet revenge because power belongs to the people, a sweet reward for Peoples Democratic Party on February 2023.
The reason number 1 Tinubu APC will be defeated in the general election is because Atiku is a better candidate when measured on experience spanning from the executive level as former vice president of Nigeria who moved our economy from a public sector monopoly and stagnation to a free market, pro business private sector driven economy. Atiku’s measurable impact ranked him as one of the largest employer of labor in Nigeria. In my view the contrast between Tinubu and Atiku is the real contest in this election. I challenge Nigerians to join me at insisting that the two candidates make public their corporate and personal tax return. Unlike Tinubu, Atiku is accepted nationally. Atiku shows more agility with refreshing ideas to rebuild Nigeria. Compare that to the national leader of the APC whose idea on solving the security situation of the country is by feeding 50 million new army recruits with maize and cassava.
One thing is certain in 2023, more Nigerians agree with Tinubu that it is time for revenge alright. A bitter-sweet revenge indeed, because we are all dying of hunger and hardship.
Hon. William “Billy” Nwoye, Former Adviser to 2 Governor’s in California USA, and First elected Nigerian in USA.