Victor C. Ariole
[…] It is my contention, that if policy makers had paid closer attention to data even as far back as 2014, perhaps more could have been done to forestall recession.
– Dr. Yemi Kale (Statistician General).
The Statistician General of the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics was at the University of Lagos at the instance of the Head of Department of Economics, Prof. R. Dauda and the Dean of the Social Sciences Prof. Iyiola Oni. The man who became Statistician General at the age of 25, in 2011, and was renewed in 2016, complained of how not to carry out statistics of a country the way Nigeria went about doing it before he came on board and how it is quite aberrative to “keep on doing the same thing, with the same people, with the same approach, with the same thinking and expect different result”.
According to him, it has been rough explaining to some Nigerian leaders who feel that some of his releases are inimical to their interests that it is dangerous tampering with data as well as, unashamedly, churning out data that obviously portray a mismatch between available input and expected output. In effect, it is like customising data to suit their interest and it lands one to living in denial. That living in denial landed Nigeria into recession and seems to be a looming danger again as nothing is done to pay closer attention to data, harbinging another recession.
Furthermore, dwindling excess crude account as a result of ignoring data relating to international oil pricing, vandalism of oil pipelines, losses in crude oil production, waning investors confidence are quite dangerous. If only data relating to performance at the stock exchange could be made to correlate with openings and investment viability of Nigeria and more work and effort canvassed to sustain them, recession could be tamed in the Nigerian economy; and it was seen in 2008 when the downturn in the world economy had less effect on the Nigerian economy upon which the idea of rebasing the GDP cropped up. It was seen in the sense that there was growth without development and it necessitated thinking out how best to approach having development as function of matching growth. The problem currently is that the 2014 GDP rebasing exercise that was aimed at “improving the quality of national account series” seems not to be sustained with data gathering that could keep the growth of such series matched with what the growth ought to add as functions that make development possible, as more poverty levels have shown up, more children are out school, more people are out of job.
As the CBN just announced that there will be more restriction of openable windows for foreign exchange sourcing for manufacturers, further people are expected to be out of job. This is a country where, according to data, over 90% unemployment relates to first job seekers who are graduates and it shows how policy makers do not pay attention to data or attempt at sustaining what has been worked out as measures of sustainability of matching growth with functional development.
Sometimes one wonders if policy makers do not see the growth indices of human capital that seems to be untapped with no fewer that 1.7 million youths looking forward to enter university. Unless it is seen as threat by policy makers or politicians who lack vision in projecting to tap into such human capital. Somehow, it is as if, let’s allow more children to be out of school so as to reduce youths’ quest in future for university education. Now, we have 16 million children out of school and 1 million youths with no admission possibility into higher institution, and no other avenue to allow them exercise their zeal for work.
Somehow, you hear oil reserve or gas reserve in trillion cubic meters without thinking out its future usefulness as per infrastructure growth. People just scheme of how they can get their share without scheming on how it could be used to develop infrastructure and the abundant human capital that could result in future diaspora remittance as possible way of enhancing it. Even Bureau d’ exchange operators’ president, Aminu Gwadabe, acknowledges such effect on their business and implores government to ban subsidizing foreign exchange with multiple exchange windows and encourage the diasporans to remit more as it is more helpful for their business than that of government allocated or regulated foreign exchange market. Just like the subsidy on fuel is also not showing any functional development in Nigeria’s economy as it continues to grow for over 0.25 trillion naira.
In deed, it is high time the government paid attention to data concerning birth rates, educational facilities development; sequences of youth development from primary to university level as well as redirecting functions based on projections and regression analysis. Educated Nigerians are not a threat to the country as some elite see it.
According to the Statistician General, what is mostly wrong with Nigeria is the “inability to achieve growth that is more inclusive and job-creating” and not making sure that growth is positively harnessed so as to promote human and economic development through the instrumentality of a well designed and effective tax system as ‘public resources used in the production process are compensated for, and (re-) deployed effectively and efficiently in processing future services. Government is continuum and resources must be harnessed, as data is ever provided, for collective well-being. He stated that statistics show that the elite just about 30% of current workforce consume 58% of Nigerian resources and, ofcourse, politicians make a greater part.
In effect, any government that cannot project effectively what 10-30 years will be for Nigerians is not worth keeping or supporting as it will amount to a mismatch of available data and expected outcome.
Ariole is Professor of French and Francophone Studies, University of Lagos