A fortnight after the sad event, there is (yet) no personal reaction from the major victim. This is owing to the timing, magnitude and the record itself, which is that Governor Oyetola lost the bid to be re-elected in Osun state. But critically examined, the man was not exactly the victim, at least in this context. The real loser was APC’s presidential candidate for the 2023 elections, Bola Tinubu. It is even immaterial nor makes it worse whether he is from the state or not.
The stunning silence since the election should therefore be understood. The first showdown between the two outstanding opposing candidates for the presidential elections? Should the election result have been in favour of outgoing Governor Oyetola, the celebration (incidentally not by the man) would not only have been astounding but also unending. Point blank, it would have been branded as a pointer to the outcome of the 2023 presidential elections even though Osun is only one of 36 states in contention. And to lose a seemingly safe stronghold, indeed, one of the two “safest” states for one of the candidates, promises an election as never before. What therefore is the pointer of the defeat of APC in the gubernatorial elections in Osun state?
The outcome might not have been significant but for the background. There were series which accumulated, the latest of which was the arrogant claim of self-invincibility in elections as if only Lagos state or even the entire south west results would adequately guarantee Nigerian presidency. That distinction, if it was ever, has now been shattered. In short, cocooning a candidate from whatever part of the country does not guarantee victory in a large and diverse constituency like Nigeria. It happened in the first and second republics only to end in electoral disaster. Failure to learn from such past political miscalculations partly accounted for the magnitude of APC’s defeat in Osun state.
Then, there was the timing. APC’s defeat in Osun state was the first decisive public reaction since the party nominated its presidential candidate for the 2023 elections. Whoever was nominated was not the issue or subject of the party’s loss. Anybody nominated might not have saved the party, since on the ground in Osun state, there had been internal division in the branch, which could not have healed before the re-election attempt by the state governor. The point in dispute which alienated a substantial segment of the party’s supporters was overwhelming overlordship or indeed, authoritarianism, incidentally by external forces rather than the outgoing governor. He was just a victim of political crossfire. In such a situation, one side was bound to lose colossally. The APC faction which lost in the governorship election in Osun state is therefore noteworthy. The other faction which seemed to have won, had no candidate and its victory reflected magnificently in the shock defeat of their party. That should be a cause for concern in the APC national hierarchy.
To worsen matters, the APC, like all other contesting parties, especially the PDP, must reckon with the bitter truth that Osun state this time, proved to be the end of all erstwhile brazen electoral malpractices. That crime, if at all committed during the elections was reduced to barest minimum. Improved measures were taken by law enforcement agences, such that even the boldest of election criminals was tamed. More unusually, police deployed over twenty thousand personnel. Hence, the near-completely peaceful conduct of the elections. There is therefore every optimism that such preventive measures will be repeated all over the country for the presidential exercise. With such stern measures, it is certain that it will not be business as usual for the political parties.
What is more, it is on record that quite politically suicidal, the APC declared unnecessary or at least avoidable electoral hostility on itself a few years ago following the sudden death of one of its senators, Isiaka Adeleke. The man was the first elected governor of Osun state. In other politically savvy societies, the sudden development would have been better handled by conceding first refusal to the deceased’s family to produce a successor to the deceased senator. Instead, although a purely state affair,the APC rebuffed a member of the late senator’s family who even offered himself in the selection exercise for the by-election. The man the APC turned down in the bid to replace his brother in the National Assembly is today the Governor-elect of Osun state on the platform of the rival PDP, which welcomed him after resigning in protest from APC. Nurudeen Adeleke as PDP candidate defeated the APC candidate to succeed his deceased brother. At that stage, there was no stopping the accelerated rise of the new senator to political fame. Was a bereaved Nurudeen Jackson Adeleke being unreasonable in bidding to succeed his brother in the National Assembly?
Surely not. The APC was more concerned about arrogance of power like in regimented societies instead of consoling a grieving family. Even if Nurudeen Adeleke did not aspire, the APC (after Senator Isiaka Adeleke’s death) should have invited him to succeed his brother in the Senate. It is usually a political party’s way of capitalising on public sympathy to sustain political strength. Hence Uhuru Kenyatta was put in line of succession to sustain his family’s name for Kenya African National Union (KANU) to be the country’s President after Arap Moi who succeeded Uhuru’s father, Jomo Kenyatta. In Pakistan, Benazir Bhutto was similarly placed to succeed her father prime minister Ali Butho, executed by the military. India similarly never lost the chance after prime minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated. Instantly, her son, Rajiv Gandhi was installed as successor prime minister till he too was assassinated. Only in April 2021, Lt. Mahamat Idris Debby was installed as the new leader in Chad following the mysterious death of his father, President Idris Debbby in a battle.
APC never believed Nurudeen Jackson Adeleke had the winning magic but the man has been winning every political contest except when the result was manipulated. Even after Jackson Adeleke (now Governor-elect of Osun state) established himself with his victory to the Senate on PDP platform after he was rejected by the APC, he returned a couple of years later to dare the APC for Osun state governorship. His imminent emergence as the new governor was blocked by INEC’s mysterious characterisation of the election as purportedly inconclusive in a three-way showdown. Even then, there was cowardly manipulation of the entire process with an emergency alliance of two of the contesting parties (one of them, APC) against Nurudeen Isiaka. That daylight political robbery did not escape the anger and bad memory of Osun state electorate. Hence, the result of the governorship race which shook the APC to its foundation.
That in itself was a lesson from Nigeria’s political history. In 1951, the NCNC won the majority of seats and could have formed the government in the defunct western region (at that time comprising Edo, Delta and the six western states). But, overnight many NCNC members were induced with ministerial appointments to cross the carpet to the Action Group which thereby formed the government. But in the 1954 federal elections to the House of Representatives in Lagos, the electorate in western region voted massively for the NCNC to enable the party win east and west regions, all to punish the 1952 carpet crossers in Ibadan. That carpet crossing of 1952 is the bane of Nigerian politics till today. Noticeably, 10 years later, (in the 1962 political crisis), Action Group parliamentarians in western region repeated the carpet crossing episode, abandoned the party and crossed the carpet to the NNDP. Political manipulation of disgusting order.
The protest vote in western region in 1954 which enabled the NCNC to defeat the Action Group in the federal elections was similar to what happened in Osun state in protest against the political robbery against Nurudeen Jackson Adeleke in 2018. Still on the magnitude of the people’s revolt in Osun state, it should be noted that the showdown came after APC’s defeat in Edo state in 2020. The people’s will must never be underestimated nor taken for granted as we march on to 2023.
That is the message from Osun state.
Atiku’s costly amnesia
Former President Olusegun Obasanjo revels in publicity and perhaps sensation. It can hardly be comfortable for him without being focused in the media for a month or he would generate issue(s) at which centre he would be and if such issue could be national elections, Obasanjo cannot be counted out.Never mind his claim on a number of occasions that he (had) quit politics. And should his former lieutenant, Atiku Abubakar, be involved, Obasanjo would exploit the situation one way or the other.
Furthermore, every observer thought the matter had ended not less than four years ago when Obasanjo somersaulted by claiming that as a Christian (God help us) he had forgiven Atiku, the meaning of which was that he was no longer opposed to Atiku because he (Obasanjo) realised that God forgives. End of story? Especially as it emerged later that Atiku Abubakar earned his forgiveness not long after he donated dollar equivalent of N50 million (Fifty million naira) to the famous Library. The EFCC, in its gra gra reputation, picked up the man through whom the money was donated, for alleged infraction of existing financial regulations. Like all such matters in this country, Nigerians have been made to forget everything.
That was till once again, Atiku Abubakar donned his gown for another shot at the Presidency. Obasanjo returned to the political arena by reminding himself that he had two regrets in life, one of which, as would be expected, was his choice of Atiku Abubakar as his running mate in 1999. Disregard the second one. Did Obasanjo not say he had forgiven Atiku Abubakar presumably completely as God forgives. The fault might partly this time, be Atiku’s. If he donated to the Library last time and that earned him forgiveness and endorsement, why did he fail to similarly extend it to the Library this time? Afterall, when he was consulting, he visited the place and had private discussions.
That was not all. Perhaps, the PDP could not contain itself. When Obasanjo, for some unknown reasons, found it not only convenient but also necessary to remind himself about his regret for choosing Atiku as his running mate, the party (PDP) felt more upset than Atiku on that insinuation. A few days later, despite total silence from Atiku, the party put everything on line and threatened its side of the story if Obasanjo within 48 hours failed to withdraw his claims.