We join the rest of the world in condemning the attack on two Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities in Abqaiq and Khurails, which came under drone and missile attack on September 14, 2019. Although, and mercifully, no life was lost, it was a testy moment in which international peace and security were in great jeopardy. The destruction knocked out half of the kingdom’s oil production capacity (5.7 million barrels per day) and led to a sudden though brief spike in oil price in the international market. It, therefore, raised fears over world energy supplies and their deleterious effects on the world’s economic outlook at a time of considerable anxiety over the future of the world economy.
The attack was indeed vicious, as smoke from the conflagration was observed from space. A total of 19 direct hits were spotted and the best estimates were that the facilities were assailed with 18 drones and seven cruise missiles, three of which fell short and were being exhibited by Saudi authorities along with other debris and parts of the drone in an attempt to positively identify their origins. The Saudis quietly suspect Iran as the culprits, but the Houthi movement in Yemen promptly claimed responsibility for the attacks, calling this its reprisal for four years of Saudi aggression and war, ruthless Saudi bombing campaigns, which have led to massive civilian casualties of especially Yemeni women and children.
Saudi air strikes in Yemen have been an international issue for sometime especially since August 18, 2018 when one such strike struck a school bus killing 40 children in a rebel held area. Indeed, last Tuesday, September 24, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees reported another vicious air strike, which killed 16 including seven children and wiped out an entire family. And as at November 2018, 6, 872 Yemeni civilians have been killed and 10,768 severely injured and the refugee situation is considered a potential catastrophe.
Opinion is divided as to actual perpetrators of the attack. United States and European powers – France, Germany – and the United Kingdom seem to have come to the conclusion that the culprit is Iran. Strangely, they have been unwilling to present any proof except hinting darkly of intelligence reports. Iran has denied any connection with the attack.
Turkey last Thursday frowned on the attempt to make Iran the scapegoat. Observers think the European leaders are “jumping the gun” and have also failed to present proof of their allegations. The French, the British and the Germans are not even waiting for the UN and international investigation, which the Saudis have themselves called for. The conclusion drawn by the three EU powers also “underestimates, as they have for years, what the Yemenis are capable of doing.”
The Houthi rebels are not new to tactics od sending drones and missiles into the Saudi Kingdom, They do so fairly regularly but earlier efforts when compared to the attack of September 14 were like flea bites. The argument has been that the Houthis were incapable of the sophistication, the precision, the coordination that were required for the execution of the Aramco attacks.
We commend the nations for their caution in not rushing to war on what at first looked like extreme provocation. We commend the Saudis for their effort to involve the United Nations and other nations in the investigation and determining the actual culprit. We think the United States exercised good judgment to resist the temptation to strike out, and for letting go a man like the former National Security Adviser, John Bolton, who has never concealed his personal animosity to Iran and who would rarely be expected to make objective decision on issues concerning Iran.
It is fairly obvious that the enlightened self-interest of those nations was also working in favour of peace. The US no longer needs Middle East oil. Indeed, since the end of the Iraq war, the US no longer perceives any strategic interests in the Middle East that would warrant military intervention. This is why the US is sitting out the Syrian War, after the defeat of Islamic State of Syria and the Levante (ISIL).
The Saudis may be ambitious but they cannot on their own take on Iran unless it receives an assurance of vital assistance from the US. Iran, on its part, has been discreet, even in its anger over the nuclear agreement and America’s unilateral repudiation of that agreement. It cannot afford to provoke the US to a war. The US is also cautious to avoid the dangers of a regional uprising of Iranian clients from Iraq, the West Bank and Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and even Qatar.
We urge patience while the true identity of those who perpetrated this attack is established. A comprehensive regional peace should be pursued by the UN Secretary General. To get the Saudis and the Iranians and their friends to be on speaking terms is in everybody’s interest.