When on 11th April, the Sudanese Army announced the overthrow of Omar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir, a rapturous cheer erupted from the thousands of Sudanese youths assembled at the Army Headquarters who have for months protested against the al-Bashir regime. From there, the cheer reverberated throughout the country, proof that no matter how entrenched a dictator, a resolute population will always have its way when adequately motivated and led by honest and transparent leadership.
Bashir’s fall was not entirely expected. He had weathered more stormy skies, he had overcome agitations in the past. He had won over huge protests, strikes, even bread protests and insurrections and political conspiracies. But staying for so long in power (on June 30, it will be exactly 30 years) also means he has made several enemies. Keen observers of Sudanese politics are sure that his generals were waiting for an opportunity to get rid of him and the protests had presented a perfect one. Before now, he had become so self-assured. He had alienated many groups, including some members of his own party, the National Congress Party (NCP).
To cite one remarkable example, General Salah Abdallah Saleh, the head of the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS) was removed by al-Bashir in 2009 and made a presidential adviser, only to be dismissed in 2011 and in 2012 was accused of plotting a coup against al-Bashir and was imprisoned for a year and later released. But in 2018, Gen. Gosh was reinstated and rehabilitated. In such a love-hate relationship, a grudge could not be ruled out.
Now, al-Bashir’s fate was said to have been sealed when the protesters were able to win the sympathies of middle and lower ranking military officers and soldiers. And things came to a head on April 8 when NISS operatives began attacking protesters implementing al-Bashir’s plan to not only break up the protests at their sit-in in front of the Khartoum Army Headquarters but also to disperse the protesters. It was shocking to the government to see some soldiers intervening to protect the protesters, and the plan had to be abandoned to avoid a bloody conflict between the security services and the soldiers. The NISS, therefore, shelved plans to unleash a bloody crackdown. And, ever since, there has been an unwritten understanding that the protests would not be dispersed by force.
But Omar al-Bashir, the Sudanese Army brigadier, who led officers to take over in 1989, seems to have led a charmed life. Apparently, nothing fazed him; he got away with acts that would sink lesser mortals. But he seems to have met his match in the December 2018 protests. He was one of Africa’s most savvy politicians, gifted with excellent footwork, he moved with the instinct of the natural gambler who could uncannily read political maps and interpret signals. He knew when to fight and when to wave the olive branch; when to be ruthless and when to conciliate.
He was a gifted double dealer on every front. Bashir was able to persuade the United States to lift sanctions on Sudan but when the Americans insisted that he should step down in 2017 because of his stinking records, he went over to the Russians and was still able to be on speaking terms with both sides. Here was a man who sent Sudanese forces to go to fight alongside the Saudis and UAE in Yemen and yet was able to keep Qatar and Turkey as his friends. The European Union gave him hundreds of millions of Euros to help stem emigration, even the FBI still found him useful.
Bashir became a victim of his own longevity in power. He kept telling the protesters that the only way to change a Sudanese government was to defeat it in an election. He forgot how he got to the place in 1989 and how he ousted Sadiq al-Mahdi because the Prime Minister began to explore peace talks with the Southern rebels. It is 10 years this month since he was indicted by the International Criminal Court for being “criminally responsible as an indirect co-perpetrator” for crimes against humanity, genocide, mass killings, rape, and pillage against civilians in Darfur. Bashir ended in ignominy. It is interesting that the two African leaders who were forced out of power in the last few weeks, Algeria’s Bouteflika and al-Bashir, ended ignominiously, which is indeed a terrible testimony to Africa’s attitude to power.