It so happens at this point in time that the leadership choice Nigeria is confronted with must be made among two strong individual aspirants and one weak region with no aspirant. The strongmen are Atiku Abubakar (PDP, Adamawa) and Bola Ahmed Tinubu (APC, Lagos). And the weak region is the South-East.

There appears to be no strong aspirant that Nigeria wants from the Orient at this time. Instead, most Nigerians eager to make a choice are already lining up behind the two who, incidentally, are yet to formally declare their leadership aspirations. However, their ambitions are an open secret; it’s not easy for one to act coy whenever one desires to wear the ultimate leadership crown in any country.

To where will the pendulum swing in 2003? North-East to benefit the Waziri Adamawa, Atiku Abubakar? South-West with Jagaban Borgu, Bola Tinubu? Or to South-East with as yet no visible candidate in the two dominant parties? Everything points to a possible Atiku-Tinubu face-off in 2023. But then, again, this is politics; a dark horse may well emerge from the lineup to snatch primaries victories in both parties.

The prospects of an Atiku-Tinubu combat appear intriguing. Some of us were privileged to see both Waziri and Jagaban join forces in the 2007 presidential election. It was an uneasy partnership between the duo, providing us a rare opportunity to watch them at close quarters. As we jetted round the country on charter planes funded by Atiku for his whistle-stop campaign rallies, the Jagaban permanently stayed away from the bonhomie inside the plane – and the campaign itself. We often found the unsmiling kingmaker already either waiting for us or about to land his chopper or private jet shortly after our arrival at each destination airfield. This routine never changed. He dutifully joined each campaign stop, said his bit at the rally, and then dashed back to the airport to return to his base. Not for him the courtesy visits to local traditional rulers and important stakeholders where the candidate habitually dropped nice words and brown bags. Watching this scenario play out time and again, it was easy for people from the Atiku camp to conclude that the Lagos strongman was both snooty and cold. We were, however, assured by his people that this was far from the truth, that Tinubu was in fact the direct opposite – a jovial and generous soul.

The year 2007 activated my interest in the man. Many from the Atiku camp used to wonder why he was acting as if his heart was not in the campaign to upgrade the status of Vice-President Atiku Abubakar. It couldn’t have been because it was against the wishes of his principal, President Olusegun Obasanjo. Obasanjo and Tinubu were not the best of friends at the time. It was when Tinubu repeated the deal with another northeasterner, former EFCC chair, Nuhu Ribadu, in 2011 that the nickel finally dropped.

Ever the strategic planner, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu has assiduously courted the North for 14 years, to pave way for the sort of payback that he appears to be demanding now. This political courtship began with Atiku in 2007, when he probably assumed, as many of us did at the time, that Nigeria was ready to give disadvantaged North-East a shot at the presidency. Despite the ferocious turf war that Atiku was waging with his boss at the time, the Lagos strongman went ahead to adopt the VP. We were left to wonder whether this was because of the strong backing that the North had given Atiku in his faceoff with OBJ or whether it was payback to OBJ for illegally seizing federal allocations to Lagos councils. The Jagaban wooed the North with his support for Atiku in 2007 and then repeated the “mistake” in 2011 with Ribadu. He finally struck gold in 2015. This was easy, given effective media degradation of the Goodluck Jonathan presidency and the assurance of blind loyalty of core northerners to Gen. Muhammadu Buhari. The Lagos godfather pitched tent with the northwestern General in 2015 even though he was known to have dressed the General in the most unflattering colours. Nigerian politicians are two-faced. They make a show of the dictum that there are no enemies but only interests in politics. But when the time is ripe, they are also known to hit back at old foes with devastating consequences.

Tinubu is a good student of Nigerian politics. He must know that there are only three pathways for selection of winning presidential candidates in Nigeria – by force, as a gift from dominant power blocs, or from a combination of both force and power. We saw the combination-type selection play out in the South-West and the Niger Delta regions as powerbrokers were forced to concede the ticket to both regions in 2003, and in 2011. The only time that Nigeria broke this selection jinx was the 1993 election won by the late Chief MKO Abiola. But note how in the end the power hawks rallied to scuttle the victory.

Will the Jagaban succeed in this mission? He has worked extremely hard for the North and now believes the time has come to receive a thank-you gift from the region’s powerbrokers. Unfortunately, President Buhari has not united the country enough to mobilize a consensus from both North and South that makes it easy for Tinubu to achieve his ambition. In addition, his aspiration must overcome the feeling of resentment among core northern politicians that the South will enjoy unfair tenure advantage should the presidency go their way in 2023.

The Waziri Adamawa faces a different set of problems. If Tinubu wins the APC primary, Atiku could easily exploit the feeling of resentment to massively unite the North behind his own aspiration in the PDP. However, Tinubu’s bid and strong agitations from the South-East means that Atiku will have a weak support base in two of the three regions of the South. It does not matter whoever he chooses as deputy from South-East or West, if he wins the PDP ticket. This leaves him with the option to use Ohanaeze and tap into his strong Igbo support base to select an acceptable running-mate of Igbo origin from either Delta or Rivers states. But there is another hurdle. Before the convention of last week, his party leadership was surreptitiously working to return the presidency slot to the South, with a southeasterner as a frontrunner. However, he now appears to have checkmated the move with the selection of Senator Iyorchia Ayu as party chairman. We remember Ayu as Atiku’s campaign manager in 2007.

It will be another long and bruising battle for Atiku and the outcome will depend a lot on who APC fields as its candidate.

As for the South-East and their Igbo brothers outside the enclave, it has so far been one long yawn. The socio-cultural group, Ohanaeze Ndigbo, makes the case for a president of Igbo extraction more than the region’s political leaders. Potentially strong candidates, like Gov. Peter Obi, have declined to run, citing strange excuses. Younger elements such as Dr. Kingsley Moghalu find comfort in fringe parties. This lethargy strengthens, rather than diminishes, the aspirations of the Jagaba and the Waziri and positions them as the candidates that Nigeria wants in 2023.

The candidate that Nigeria wants for 2023 will, therefore, bank on ethnic resentment, a payback for political support or on a sense of entitlement to the position based on regional ‘turn-by-turn’. It is not likely that our nation will, for once, decide to turn its sights to the green fields where strong leadership, experience and capacity flowers and blooms. Because this would mean getting a leader that Nigeria needs. And we are not ready for this. Yet.

 

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Thoughts on Biafra 2.1 (4)

A blood-shedding adventure

The present secessionist bid is an adventure for more bloodshedding, which already has begun on all sides. And, under the present circumstances, all the reasons advanced in support of the efforts are fake, artificial, parochial, childish and suicide-bomber-like.

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An allied request

Mazi Ogbuagu, you made my day, mana onye ga anu? I’ve much to say but for time. My request: Can you help get Aburi Accord serialized in any of the newspapers as done in the Vanguard long ago? Or make bound copies for the public to buy to digest? Thanks.

– 0808 863-2290

You are sincere and truthful

Good evening, Brother Ogbuagu. Just finished reading your “Thoughts on Biafra 2.1 (4). Please, let me have the dates of the previous articles on the subject to see if I can source them from Enugu Sun office (I live in Enugu). Meanwhile, may the Good Lord bless you for your SINCERITY and respect for the TRUTH. Sadly, Ndigbo seem to have a surfeit of TINKERS and a painfully small supply of THINKERS. I am comforted to know there are people like you, ready to stand for the TRUTH and politely too! I’ll keep in touch. God bless you.

– Hon. Juventus C. Ojukwu (former member, House of Reps and a retired Army officer)

Worried about reach

I still maintain that the right class, in terms of reading, though educated, has no access to this information about aga akpa ya akpa.

– Nnadi Chikezie Sunday Onoh, Ph.D, ESUT

Don’t bother about Nyesom Wike

Chief Ogbuagu, Well done. Wonderful write-up published today in Daily Sun, September 30, 2021. You have said it all. Some of our Igbo brothers said that Ojukwu never consulted anybody before he declared Biafra Republic. His actions were based on report submitted to him. However, Kanu’s agitation for Biafra was not discussed anywhere. I totally agree with you. But I never really believed that Kanu is for a republic, just a pressure group fighting for injustice meted for Igbo nation. Political elite are not consulted at all. Finally, you shouldn’t have mentioned Nyesom Wike. This is a man who publicly declared that he is not Igbo. So, calling him here is of no use. He has never played any role in the progress of the Igbo nation.

– Tony, 0803 737 9028

I don’t want to see another Biafra

Please does the wrong treatment of the Igbo by the Federal Government result to the slaughter of Igbo by the Igbo in the name of seeking Biafra? All their killings started with the formation of IPOB and its army. I would rather be dead than be part of IPOB/Biafra. I have seen Biafra before and I don’t want to see another in my lifetime.

(Number withheld)