It is apparent that the devastating effects of the 2022 flooding that ravaged different parts of Nigeria are yet to fully manifest. Hence, it is not surprising that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) alerted Nigerians to brace up for higher food prices/risks in 2023 due to this flooding and high fertilizer prices. The global financial institution said further volatility in the parallel market exchange rate and continued dependence on central bank financing of the budget deficit could worsen price pressures as well.
Nevertheless, the Federal Government (FG) has dismissed the IMF alert. It said Nigerians should not be afraid of any food crisis. The Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) reportedly noted that it had put measures in place to avert the crisis. Part of the measures, according to the FMARD, includes distribution of assorted food commodities from the FG’s strategic food reserve to the vulnerable and flood victims through the Federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management and Social Development. Also, there is distribution of subsidised agricultural inputs such as fertilizers, certified seeds and agro-chemicals to affected wheat, rice, and maize farmers for dry season farming. The ministry said it had also distributed brooded broilers for restocking of affected smallholder poultry farms nationwide.
Although the FG deserves commendation for the efforts taken so far, it is wrong to dismiss the report of the IMF and many other experts with a wave of the hand. The recent flooding affected about 34 states, including many food-producing states in the North Central and other states along the river banks. It destroyed livestock, thousands of hectares of farms and staples like rice, cassava, plantain, yam and many others. One of the largest rice farms in Nigeria, the 4,500 hectares of Olam Rice Farm in Nasarawa State, was not spared by the flood. Even when the flood recedes, the fear is that the land may not be suitable for cultivation for a long time.
This is partly why the United Nations’ Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Nigeria, Mathias Schmale, said the recent flooding was expected to shoot up the already estimated 19.5 million people considered to be suffering food insecurity in the country. He said climate change was real and affecting millions of people in Nigeria. In a joint report earlier in the year, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations and the UN World Food Programme (WFP) indicated that food crisis had tightened its grip on Nigeria and 18 other countries.
Without mincing words, the projected food crisis is already here. Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) stated that 133 million Nigerians were multi-dimensionally poor, with a significant number of them lacking access to food security. It said food inflation hit 23.73 per cent in October 2022. Today, the prices of essential food items in the market have already gone beyond the reach of the average Nigerian. In some cases, the price increase, compared to the last four years, is over 100 per cent.
Besides flooding and high fertilizer prices, high rate of insecurity is one major causative factor of this food crisis. The herders/farmers clashes which frequently occur in different parts of the country have driven farmers out of their farms. Some of these farmers have either been kidnapped or killed.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has not helped matters. Ukraine is a major exporter of wheat. But since that war started, the sale of that commodity has been hampered in the world. This is partly why the prices of bread and related products have also hit the rooftops. Russia, on its part, is a major exporter of gas. Due to the war, it has cut its supply of gas to different parts of the world. This has occasioned high energy prices which affect many industries, including agro-based industries.
Even before this spate of insecurity, we had neglected agriculture over the years. Nigeria has large arable land. But what largely holds sway is subsistence farming. For long, we have neglected technology in our agricultural practices. It is obvious that this “hoe and knife” type of agriculture will hardly give us high yielding crops and better harvest.
Rather than joining issues with the IMF, government should look for ways to collaborate with such international agencies to ameliorate the looming food crisis. It should task relevant government ministries and agencies to prepare adequately for the crisis.
The urgent need to return to agriculture, which has more potential now than oil, cannot be overemphasised. Government should drive this process by creating the enabling environment for agriculture to thrive. For instance, it should subsidise components like fertilizer and ensure that it gets to the end users. It should also give subventions and incentives to local farmers. On their part, farmers need to adopt new mechanised system of farming driven by biotechnology and do away with crude farm implements. They also need to embrace high-yielding crops, all-season farming, and better storage facilities.
Ultimately, government needs to tackle insecurity without which, the desire to feed large population like ours will be a mirage.