After months of high-wire politicking, the two major political parties in the country have finally named their presidential candidates. It all began with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which shunned all the push for zoning the presidency to the South. The party said it was focused on winning the 2023 presidential election and did not think that a southern candidate would help that cause. There were strident arguments to the contrary but the leadership of the party was not persuaded. It has gone ahead to field the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar as its candidate. The South East, with all its unassailable arguments in favour of zoning, was stunned by the refusal of the party to cede the presidential ticket to it. But the PDP says it is not interested in zoning or zonal sentiments. It has set sail regardless of the misgivings of the South East.
Then enter the All Progressives Congress (APC). The party, all along, left no one in doubt that it was looking southwards for President Muhammadu Buhari’s successor. That was why an army of southern aspirants filed out to vie for the office of President. But since politics is never a straightforward game, certain tendencies, which created the impression that the party could pick its candidate from the North, crept in at some point. That permutation threw up the likes of the President of the Senate, Ahmad Lawan. He was even touted as the consensus presidential candidate of the party a few days to the primary election. But, strangely, and unexpectedly, a band of northern governors within the party began to make a case for the South. They said it was only fair and just for a southerner to take over after Buhari’s eight years in the saddle. This volte face from northern governors of APC extraction was received with utmost suspicion in discerning quarters. These same governors had, months back, rejected the call by southern governors for power shift to the South in 2023. So, what happened overnight? What could be responsible for the turnaround? We are still searching for the real reason northern APC governors decided to sing a new song. Time will unravel their real intention.
But before undeniable facts begin to assume the centre stage, the northern APC governors are already being faulted over their claim on fairness and justice. If these were their real reasons for advocating power shift to the South, why did they not back a southeasterner for the position, given the fact that the zone has not yet got its due in this regard? That is when their claim on fairness and justice would have made sense. Under the present circumstance, they threw justice and fairness overboard while making pretensious reference to it. Ultimately, the action of the governors is spiteful. It smacks of willful exclusion. It is intended to brow-beat the South East. In fact, it is a calculated attempt to put a wedge between the South East and South West. This is mischief writ large. Fairness and justice cannot have a place in this state of disaffection.
Clearly, the northern governors have shown nothing but disdain for the South East. It is an indisputable fact that the South East deserves consideration and concession in this matter. But Nigerians do not care a hoot about this. This is what the northern APC governors have demonstrated. By queuing behind Bola Tinubu, a southwesterner, the northern governors have left no one in doubt that they were not motivated by fairness and justice in their call for power shift to the South. It must be something else. In all, the South East lost out on both fronts. Neither the PDP nor the APC came anywhere close to what the zone wanted.
Significantly, the indiscretion of the PDP and APC is coming at a time when a third force is coming into play in Nigerian politics. As a matter of fact, the two major political parties created room for the emergence of this alternative platform represented by the Labour Party (LP) whose presidential candidate, Peter Obi, has become the rave of the moment. What the LP lacks in terms of reach and national outlook, it is making up for with the gargantuan image of its presidential candidate. The nationalistic fervour and renaissance around Obi cannot be wished away. The youth population and those who yearn for a better Nigeria are looking up to him.
With this turn of events, the three major segments of Nigeria, namely, the North, the South East and the South West are going to square up in the race. This scenario reflects what used to be in Nigerian politics when the North, the East and the West always presented formidable presidential candidates at elections. That old order has returned and its possible outcome is what is going to occupy the polity in the coming months.
But an elementary overview of the setup would tell a straightforward story. The APC and PDP, being old war horses, will strive to burn each other out. Here, the PDP will have a ready advantage. The North, in whatever circumstance, will prefer Atiku, one of its own, to Tinubu. If that is the case, it will mean that Atiku will readily floor Tinubu in all the three zones of the North. In the South, Atiku will also do better than Tinubu in South-South and South East. The two zones, regardless of whatever zoning sentiments they have against PDP, will not throw the party away in favour of APC. For Tinubu, therefore, the South West will be his only strong base. The marginal votes he will score in the other five zones cannot guarantee him victory at the presidential poll. In other words, power shift to the South, which northern APC governors canvased under questionable circumstances, may well be a ruse. It may end up as a deceitful way of ceding the presidency to the South only in words, not in actuality.
This possible decapitation of Tinubu by the afore-stated variables makes the third force an issue that cannot be overlooked in the coming polls. Obi, no doubt, will do extremely well in his South East region. Having been left in the cold by the PDP and APC, the South East is likely going to make a strong statement with Obi’s candidature. But much more than that is that the appeal Obi is commanding goes beyond region. He is enjoying a pan-Nigerian appeal. Going by the goodwill he is enjoying, the expectation is that Obi will spring a surprise that has never been seen in Nigeria’s electoral history. Thus, contrary to the received impression in some circles that the battle for the presidency in the 2023 elections will be principally between Atiku and Tinubu, it will actually be between Atiku and Obi. We may not bet on this, but certainly the tide of the events to come will become clearer in the months ahead.