The explicit alert issued on Nigeria by the UN Department for Safety and Security (UNDSS) recently spoke about the looming complex and coordinated attacks on the country’s critical infrastructure.  It, therefore, called for an urgent review and disposition of anti-terrorism measures and forces.  The alert did not come with an appointed date and time.  But that does not diminish its credibility.  This alert is neither bogus nor fanciful and must be treated with the greatest diligence and sensitivity.  Indeed, anyone connected with Nigeria’s security in whatever capacity should sit up, double his vigilance and leave nothing to chance.

To Nigeria’s security authorities, the least we can say is: there is no smoke without fire.  The UNDSS is not known for crying wolf where there is none.  Indeed, this is probably its first alert on Nigeria.  It should not be treated with levity.  The terrorists are clearly identified as Boko Haram, which does not come as a surprise.  The UN agency warns darkly of terrorist activity, including the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), the terrorists’ weapons of choice.  The attacks are expected to be complex, targeting critical national infrastructure and high value targets.  If the alert is right, it would be a new and less barbaric strategy than Boko Haram’s regular method of exacting as much bloodshed as possible and maximising fatalities.

The UN agency went on to explain in its “security threat information and advisory” report that based on the information at its disposal, Boko Haram is planning to exploit the momentum of the enormous stress on the Nigerian government and its security arms occasioned by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, a situation made worse by bandits and kidnappers running rampant.  Bandits had on May 13 killed eight people in Gowon Rogo in Kufana District, Kajuru Local Government Area, Kaduna State This occurred a day after 17 people were killed in the same village.  Indeed, Nigerians have apparently lost a sense of security in almost all security spheres.  They have seen that the war against Boko Haram seems to have stalled with the government telling Nigerians that Boko has been “technically defeated” when the opposite is seemingly the case.  Of the hundreds of Chibok girls abducted by Boko Haram in 2014, the government has been unable to account for 109 girls who, till today, are still in captivity with the government seemingly incapable of rescuing them or winning their freedom through negotiations.  Nigerians are feeling more and more frustrated with what they consider a failing government’s strategy.  Thus, the current upsurge of violence has put enormous pressure on the country’s security forces which seem to have been stretched to breaking points given the many challenges, quite apart from the war with Boko Haram.

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We urge the security forces to do a dry run of a spectacular terrorist attack twice a month as part of preparatory counter measures.  Boko Haram had caught our security forces napping in previous bombings.  This time, our forces have been forewarned and, therefore, should be forearmed.  UN intelligence services probably picked it up listening to one of the  extra-terrestrial chats.  Now is the time to seek real help from our friends abroad, especially the American security services, who keep their ears to the ground on jihadi communication. They might help pin-point and pre-empt the plot in real time and assist Nigerian forces to round up the insurgents before they do any damage.  But seeking foreign help is no substitute for physically securing our infrastructure and other assets, including our motor parks, markets, shopping malls, airports, rail stations and worshipping places in addition to our electric, industrial and telecommunications installations.

The terrorists are likely to aim to achieve the scale of damages at the UN House bombing of August 26, 2011, when a suicide car bomb exploded at 10.15 a.m. at Abuja killing 15 UN staff members and eight others, and injuring 116 people, 64 of them UN workers.  CBS News reported a sedan loaded with explosives crashed through two gates at the exit of the UN compound as guards tried in vain to stop it.  The suicide bomber, said to be a Cameroonian, drove the car right through the glass front of the main reception area of the building and detonated the explosives inflicting the most damage possible.  The explosion punched a big hole in the building.  Before then was the bombing of the Nigeria Police Headquarters.  Three years later came the Nyanya Bus Station carnage which claimed 71 lives.  Indeed, between 2011 and 2015 Boko Haram staged nine bombings in Abuja resulting in the deaths of at least 191 people.

Our security managers should adopt what their Western counterparts have come to accept as the beginning of wisdom: never ignore, underrate, or discount a terror alert.  In other words, they cannot leave any loopholes, omissions, or errors.  It means long hours of work, inconvenient deployments and as expensive as these tend to be, they are nothing compared to the damages and destruction of a terrorist attack.