Emma Emeozor, [email protected]
United States Democrat dominated House of Representatives have set up an impeachment inquiry on the allegations that United States President Donald Trump, in July, asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenkiy to investigate former US Vice President and 2020 presidential aspirant under the platform of the Democratic Party, Joe Biden and his son, Hunter, who served on the board of a Ukrainian company.
Lawmakers and other Americans calling for Trump’s impeachment say he has abused his office and therefore should be removed. In this report, former Director General of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs and President and Director General of Bolytag Centre for International Diplomacy and Strategic Studies, Professor Bola A. Akinterinwa, examines the implications of the impeachment of Trump for US foreign policy.
Since coming to power in 2015, Trump has pursued an aggressive foreign policy in tandem with his campaign slogan: “America First”. His foreign policy has been a subject of debate among scholars of international diplomacy within and outside the United States.
While some commentators, particularly the pro-nationalist group argue that his foreign policy direction suits the current economy situation in the US, others say he has run foul of the spirit of the constitution of the country, doing more harm than good to America’s image.
Akinterinwa concord with the latter group even as he expresses doubts over the success of the impeachment move because of the dominance of Republicans in the Senate, which has the responsibility to approve or disapprove impeachment motion.
“The question is in the event of impeachment, will it be easy or uneasy, will it be possible or impossible for a successor president to overturn what Trump might have done,” Akinterinwa asked rhetorically. Continuing, he said: “The first explanation is that what is it that he has done that will be subject to being changed or to being turn around?”
He noted that impeachment itself is a problem of its own, stressing that the impeachment probe may lead and may not lead to the president’s removal for two reasons: “In the House of Representatives Democrats are in control in terms of majority. But they do not have majority in the Senate. Therefore, if all the senators vote, reason together, act together in supporting the non-impeachment of Trump, then the process would have failed.
“The other side of the coin is that there are some Republicans who believe that the values of the US, the respect for national sovereignty, indeed, any interference in the domestic affairs of the US, particularly the national affairs of the country are a serious incursion. Therefore, they are not going along with their fellow Republicans. The underlying factor is that 2/3 majority will be required in the Senate before removal of the president can take place.
“Looking at the dimension of the impeachment, let us assume that it becomes a fait accompli and as a fait accompli, the Senate also approves it by pushing along for the removal of Trump, what are the implications, what are the problems will a successor president be able to change in what he has done so far?”
Akinterinwa was mindful of America’s history and political system when he proffered answer to the question. He said: “First, the beauty of democracy in the US is that political governance is based on institutionalised decision making process. So, the individual including the president is not above the institution.
Therefore, it is the institutional interest of the country that will always prevail. “Whatever institutional interest is at stake is what will determine whether whatever has been done under Trump will be overturned.”
The professor was however quick to observe that “there are some issues, problems, decisions that were taken on the basis of the non-civilised diplomatic approach of Trump to many things. That in itself has tainted the global image of the US. Therefore, any successor president is most likely to do away with his approach to public governance.”
Akinterinwa was emphatic when he said Trump doesn’t appear to know the implications of not respecting international protocols as established by the world powers of which the US is one. “That particular aspect appears to me to be the major factor that has largely affected US foreign policy attitudinal disposition. This is not good enough. I think that any succeeding president would want to do away with it”.
Akinterinwa pointed out that Trump is promoting a unilateral style of governance in global affairs “He is trying to promote a resurgence nationalist strategy which conflicts with the multilateral approach that has been put in place in the post-World War II era”. He buttressed his argument by drawing attention to the belief in the conduct and management of international security relations.
According to him, it will be better to adopt a collective security which requires multilateral approach. “So, we are currently in the process of multilateralism as a mechanism, as an instrument, as a guide to the conduct of global security. But Trump does not believe in multilateralism.
He is preaching the gospel of nationalism, and unilateralism. In his speech during the just concluded 74th United Nations General Assembly, he told the world that the future does not belong to the global community but to the nationalist, the national patriots. He said anyone who loves his country, who wants peace, should promote his national interest”.
Akinterinwa reminded the public of the thrust of Trump’s ‘irritating’ foreign policy which he described as the “3 pillars”. They are: Make America Great, America First and Keep America Great.
“What does America First mean in terms of implication for the rest of the world”, he asked rhetorically. He was quick to provide an answer. He said: “It simply means that no interest of whatever country shall be allowed to be given priority over the interest of US. The other angle to it is that the interest of US should come first, it is second to none”.
Interpreting the policy further, Akinterinwa said it means that Trump’s strategic calculation is tactical foreign policy of which “the US interest must come first” and there will be no compromise with other nations’ interest on the policy of ‘Make America Great Again.’ Akinterinwa said “it means that before Trump, America was great.
During his tenure, America is no longer great and there is need to make it great. In other words, there is need to restore the greatness that has been lost.” What exactly is the professor saying? Hear him: “Trump is telling the world that during his first tenure which ends in January 2020, he has restored the greatness of America.
“So, for the purpose of his re-election, he is now telling Americans “Make America Great Again.” Put differently, he is telling Americans that if he is re-elected, the glory of America which was lost and restored will be sustained. Akinterinwa wants the public to analyse the import of the ‘3-Pillars’ and their implication in terms of impeachment of the president.
For him, “if Trump is impeached, there may be no successor who may want to sustain the primacy of US the way he is going about it. That is because he is using undue force to impose US on all other countries. For as long as US survives, every other state can as well go to hell if they want. But what Trump doesn’t know is that his strategic calculation is at best very myopic.”
The professor cautioned that “there is no country, no matter how powerful, no matter how strong, at least in the world of today that can remain as an Island of its own”.
Akinterinwa wants the likes of Trump to know that “the world is largely predicated on the rule of interdependence. He cited the examples of US – China trade dispute, Iran nuclear crisis and North Korea diplomatic intrigues.
“When you look at the US-China trade war, while Trump believes that he is attacking the Chinese, the American farmers, industrialists, the entrepreneurs are already complaining very bitterly, to the extent that Trump has to subsidise, to mitigate their sufferings. America that created the dispute is not finding it easy. If you look at the situation from that angle, America is only trying to use force and the international community is complaining.
On the on-going face-off between Iran and US over the nuclear deal, Akinterinwa former President Barack Obama signed the agreement to the delight of the people but Trump came and unilaterally withdrew the country from the agreement.
As if to summarise his standpoint, Akinterinwa said: “What I’m saying here in effect is that there might not be a successor who may revisit the issue in the long term national interest of US.
The case of Iran is not different from that of North Korea. Another president is likely to be friendly with the world.” Interestingly, since calls for Trump’s impeachment intensified, America has been thrown into frenzy to the extent that some observers have expressed fear that the country may face another civil war. Already the country is split between pro-impeachment group and pro-Trump campaigners.
Whatever be the nature of the drum beat, Akinterinwa does not agree with the thinking that the impeachment of Trump would lead to a civil war. “I do not subscribe to that argument.
America is not a country that can easily break up. The institutions there are working. Those who fear there might be a civil war are looking at Trump as a racist. Of course he promotes anti-immigration policy.
“Again, some people believe that he is against Blacks. So, the issue now is that the illegal immigrants, of course I do not see any reason why anybody should condone illegal migration. But all the people in this category including the indigenous American community would be glad to have Trump removed.”