United States of America is the bastion of the presidential system of government. Free, fair, peaceful, periodic and credible election is the major pillar of democracy. Elections hold in America every two years. Mid-term election is so called because it happens in-between presidential election. Presidential election holds every four years while parliamentary and some staggered gubernatorial elections hold every two years. This is because the tenure of congressional and senatorial men do not end at the same time which enables the tenures to overlap and create a continuum in parliamentary process with the resultant effect that at no time will you have the parliament dissolved. You can only have change of leadership of the parliaments, consisting of a House of Representatives and a Senate. Whichever party wins the majority at any election sets up the leadership of the parliament. The US Mid-term election of 2022 is full of lessons for all the democracies of the world particularly those practising the presidential system of government.
The usual precedent in America is that the party with an incumbent President always loses both Houses of Congress. Probably, Americans do this to check and balance presidential powers with the legislative powers. Obama won his presidential election with the two Houses of Congress during the 2008 election, but lost both Houses of Congress during the 2010 mid-term elections. Obama, who is a democrat, worked with the congresses controlled by the republicans throughout the remaining of his tenure with the attendant irritation that he was inhibited from carrying out his foreign policy objectives and failed to get the confirmation of his preferred candidate in the Supreme Court of the United States of America. The Senate simply refused to even entertain the hearing of Obama’s candidate to replace a Supreme Court Justice that died one year to the end of his tenure and there was nothing Obama could do about it. On the international level, Obama drew a red line to the Syrian government led by Bashar al-Assad not to use chemical weapons to fight the protesters against the Assad regime in Syria. Assad used the chemical weapon but Obama couldn’t do anything because he couldn’t receive the support of both Houses of Congress to move against Assad of Syria. The United States laws made it mandatory that the President of America must secure the approval of the Parliament before fighting any war abroad. However, Presidents that have majority of their Party members in both Houses enjoy the power of preemptive strikes against foreign adversaries to the warm protection of fellow Party members in the Parliament.
The lesson here is the supremacy of the rule of law against the rule of men. No matter how powerful a position is in America, it must operate within the rule of law and any breach of the rule of law attracts commensurate punishment. Donald Trump, the President of America, learnt the hard way the lesson not to breach American laws. He lost the control of the House of Representatives during the mid-term elections which saw the election of Nancy Pelosi as the Speaker of the House of Representatives. Donald Trump ended up in history as the only twice impeached one-term President in America because of his lackadaisical approach to the respect of the rule of law in America. His request from a foreign adversary to investigate a political opponent for corruption triggered the first impeachment proceeding against him while his insurrection against American government when he lost the election triggered the second impeachment proceeding against him.
Nigerians must learn to respect the rule of law as a major pillar of democracy and must also learn to hold their leaders accountable for their actions no matter how highly placed. We seem to be too docile in our country and that is why politicians get away with blue murder in Nigeria. How can some government officials have the guts to come to the National Assembly to tell Nigerians that snakes swallowed government money; that monkeys ate government money and termites chewed government documents and yet the National Assembly members did nothing about it and Nigerians allowed it to pass them by. Such a caricature of governance cannot be overlooked in America and we must borrow a leaf from them. Above all 2023 provides a veritable opportunity for Nigerians to vote out any government that took them for granted for which they couldn’t get redress from the National Assembly because the same party controls the two arms of government in Nigeria. Americans did the same thing when they voted out the Republicans under Trump in the Presidency and in the Parliament in 2020 when they discovered that Trump was over heating the polity through incessant breaches of the law and making unfounded statements about a fathom election rigging which he never proved for one day.
The next important lesson is that opinion polls alone do not win elections, actual voting does. A lot of opinion polls predicted that the Republicans will probably win both Houses of the Parliament in line with the precedents in US elections. However, the opinion poll was only correct in half because the Democrats won the Senate, while the Republicans won the House of Representatives and even at that, not with the overwhelming majority as anticipated. This exposes the downside of the opinion polls. There’s a possibility that the people who are leading in the opinion polls may become relaxed and not continue to pursue their victory with the same vigour and might that the people who are trailing behind would. I witnessed this when I visited Britain during the Brexit referendum. The “Britain-must-remain” in Europe was leading in the polls against the “Britain-must-leave” Europe. My friend that was escorting me around London was a remainer. On the day of the referendum, I reminded him that he needed to go and vote. He pointed out to me that the opinion polls suggested that the remainers were leading comfortably in the opinion polls and that they didn’t need his vote to win. Next morning, to the chagrin of the whole world, the Brexitiers won the referendum that kicked Britain out of Europe and took out the Conservative Party Prime Minister, David Cameron, from office which in turn ushered in political instability in Britain that saw Britain elect about four Prime Ministers within four years. This is a great lesson for Nigeria in the sense that those who are winning in the opinion polls should not relent until they are declared winners after 2023 elections. They must collect their PVCs and ensure they mobilise every of their supporter to vote for their candidates or they risk losing the election at the altar of over confidence. It’s not over until it’s over.
Another lesson to be learnt from the American mid-term election is that the result of the primary election is not a pointer that the party will win the general election. The Party that produces better candidates will win the ones that produce sub-standard candidates. Donald Trump used his popularity within his Party to influence the choice of election deniers which supported his unsubstantiated allegation of rigging in the 2020 presidential election in the primary election. He used the opportunity to flush out better candidates from his party in a vendetta manner because they supported his impeachment and because they refused to support his election rigging allegation lies. This prompted McConnell, the Republican minority leader of the Senate, to publicly announce that poor candidate quality may cause the Republicans the anticipated majority in the Senate and it did, as Americans roundly rejected the Republican candidates who were of low quality in character in the general election, despite the fact that they won in the primary election.
The lesson here for Nigeria is that the Parties should be careful in the choice of its candidates in the primary elections because if they are of low quality, they may likely lose in the general election. Many parties in Nigeria have been very careless in the choice of candidates in their primary elections believing that they can capitalise on the docility of Nigerians and the corrupt tendencies of the elite class to push them through.
Going by the lesson of the mid-term election in the United States of America, such candidates are heading towards failure because competence, character and capacity are needed to win political elections especially that of the President and not even the influence of moneybags can save such candidates.
Another candid lesson from the mid-term election is the waning influence of godfathers and fake news in a civilized democracy. Donald Trump lost the 2020 presidential election and maintained howbeit that the election was stolen from him. He went on to use his godfather figure in the Republican party to force his own candidates on the party,. He boasted that he can do whatever he likes, including pulling a pistol and shooting a follower and they will still love him and vote for him. He was wrong as Americans rejected his godfatherism and fake news to deliver victory to his opponents. Lesson here is that every godfather in Nigeria will face a certain humiliation in 2023 if his choices do not correspond to the wishes of Nigerians because Nigerians are wiser. The Osun election was an example of what will happen in 2023. A certain godfather insisted on returning an unpopular candidate in the Osun Governorship election and Osun people made sure he lost. 2023 is the turn of Nigerians not the turn of any godfather.
We must note that precedents do not last forever. There’s always a time it will be broken. As the US mid-term election failed to follow established precedents, so also 2023 election may spring surprises and break all known precedents. God rules in the affairs of men and has the eventual authority to ordain His rulers on earth. He does not follow any precedent. May His will be done in Nigeria come 2023 as it was done in US mid-term election against known precedents.
