In June 2022, Sidi Ali, a one-time senator from Kano, spoke in an interview with Fred Ituah for The Sun. In that interview, he shared his perspective on the outcome of the primary election of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and that of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Abuja. But he spoke more specifically about the APC and the mobilization of delegates across the country by the aspirants. He said: “I was a delegate to APC presidential primary. We were all brought to the Government House in Kano. We saw Tinubu, Osinbajo and other presidential aspirants. I called my Igbo friend who was an aspirant too. I told him other aspirants from other regions had already visited the delegates. I asked him when he was coming. He told me he would address the delegates at Eagle Square. I told him by the time we reached Eagles Square, delegates would have decided.”
Ali’s view says something deep about the South East. The bigger question it brings to the table is what the stake of the South East geopolitical zone is with regard to the 2023 presidential election, and how the zone is working to achieve such interest. From observable indications, there is an understanding that other geopolitical zones are working, or have worked out their interests in both the PDP and the APC in such a manner that they will derive certain advantages from whichever party forms the next government at the centre, beginning May next year.
As it is, the South East region is governed by three political parties, PDP, APC and the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA). With these, only the PDP offers a more realistic opportunity to bring the Igbo back to the centre of Nigeria’s leadership through Ifeanyi Okowa, an Igbo politician who seeks to occupy a seat last occupied by the Igbo through Dr. Alex Ekwueme. APC, with a South West and North East combo, does not present the same opportunity even when it controls two states in the South East like the PDP.
What this points to is that it would be difficult for any political party to achieve bloc votes from the South East in 2023. The votes will be balkanized. Is that a political interest that would strategically position the South East to make the desired representation or the impact that would influence policies that would help people of the region pursue their individual and collective interests?
The challenge this poses is that of clearly defining what interests the geopolitical region is taking into the next general election. That interest ought not to be far from either returning to the centre of national leadership through strategic alignment and engagement with other regions or playing out a game that keeps the zone on the fringes, as a negligible minority, for another governance cycle. So, where does the South East stand?
In 2015, President Muhammadu Buhari spoke at the Council on Foreign Relations in the United States of America and drew a line on how he would treat those that gave him 95 per cent of his winning votes and those that contributed only 5 per cent. Though many people condemned him for the primitive approach, it, however, spoke to the fact that in Nigeria’s expression of fairness more is given to those who give more than to those who brought in little. Refer to the derivation policy. The argument here, therefore, is this: If by the end of the current election cycle, either APC or PDP constitutes the Federal Government, with fewer votes from the South East than in 2015 and 2019, will the region logically ask for full accommodation in the government, especially with the new trend of ethnicisation of leadership as espoused by the APC? This is outside constitutionally guaranteed offers like ministerial appointments.
Besides, there has been concern over the specific southeastern interest that the duo of Okezie Ikpeazu and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, governors of Abia and Enugu states, respectively, are pursuing with their open protest against the PDP in alliance with Nyesom Wike of Rivers State. No one seems to have a handle on what exactly they want to achieve with their membership of the G5 governors.
The suggestions are that, irrespective of what their individual interests are, these governors, who by their office are high-ranking members of the party from the region, ought to have engaged elders and strategic stakeholders of the party in the region to rub minds and agree on what should, as a matter of necessity, constitute a South East interest in PDP, going into the election.
The same position has also been suggested for APC. Despite this need, the two governors do not present themselves as leading the party in the region. They are also not seen to be taking advantage of their positions to attract any special benefits to their states either.
Sadly, neither they nor their APC counterparts in the region are seen or heard of negotiating any beneficial interests for the region from whichever party succeeds Buhari. Just this week, political leaders of the northern divide of Nigeria, meeting under the aegis of the Arewa Joint Committee, dragged the lead presidential candidates to an interactive session in Kaduna. The aim of the meeting was to strategically place the interest of the North in the consciousness of the candidates.
Bola Tinubu, APC’s presidential candidate, was also speaking to the specific interest of the South West with his Emi lo kan declaration. Beyond that, the support of governors and major political actors from the region for him speaks more to the region’s interest in the 2023 election, which is built around APC and its spread across the country.
It is not too late to make the move. The South East region need not walk itself into a negligible minority by refusing to rationally hold a stake in the next presidential election by identifying strategic allies and building stronger ties that would return it to the centre of Nigeria’s leadership. South West’s investment through a strategic partnership with Buhari in 2015 has paid off handsomely for the region –think about the Federal Executive Council’s approval of another deep seaport at Badagry and other beneficial advantages. This suggests that the South East region must not remain aloof and expect miracles to happen.
Miracles happen only when you are strategically aligned with defined goals. Even where the interest of the South East is to produce a President for Nigeria, the region must still align and build bridges with other geopolitical zones for ease of delivery. As constitutionally mandated, no geopolitical zone can singly produce a President for Nigeria, even where it wins every presidential vote cast in its region. This is a note the South East must keep before it as it walks into the 2023 election. Power, like every student of power understands, is negotiated.