This is no prediction or the regular annual forecasts that some people have found to become an anathema. Some prophets, some of them self-styled, tell you to pray against one calamity or the other. They tell you to pray against the demise of one traditional ruler or governor or another prominent person. I recall, in the early ’90s, when a certain prophet who is either demised or has gone into oblivion, told the prominent musician, King Sunny Ade, who was ill at that time, to pray hard or prepare to face his maker. It took the late Archbishop Benson Idahosa to debunk the fear-inducing prophecy. It was the ailment that elicited the grammatical blunder from the Afro-Juju crooner, Sir Shina Peters, who wished Sunny Ade ‘quick recover’ at the Performing Musicians’ Association of Nigeria (PMAN) awards for that year. King Sunny Ade is still alive and kicking.
This intervention is not in that line. Those who predicted that number two would become number one at the start of this year may say that the year has not ended, but it may now be evident that God has changed his mind. This is no such guess work or exchange of personal wishes for prediction. Here we want to extrapolate from what we can see. I stand to win no trophy but things can happen to knock off what we have envisaged. One of the glaring things to be expected in the coming year is that governance will take a back seat because the nation will be in the thick of politics. The signs have begun to show. Some politicians have begun to position themselves for election. Some have carefully masked under the guise of bringing equity to the zones, which is why the presidency should come their zone, and to them. Many governors who want to do a second term would be on top of their game, holding endless meetings and cutting deals in order to bring their ambition to fruition. It has become the norm that governance takes a back seat in election season.
One sure thing to expect is a hike in the price of petrol or the much-touted deregulation of the sector,in line with the Petroleum Act, one of the fastest bills that the President gave accent to. Those who run the states, by this I mean governors, have consistently complained that funds were shrinking such that they could not deliver what we call dividends of democracy. Now the government is determined to stop fixing the price of premium motor spirit, which is the only product yet to be deregulated in that sector. We will expect that in 2022. But Labour is also set to give the government a fight. The Nigerian Lbour Congress (NLC) has given notice that it would not fold its arms and “watch the Federal Government push more Nigerians below the poverty line.” The congress believes that the move would worsen the poverty index in Nigeria. It said any attempt to increase the price of PMS would affect every Nigerian, regardless of their status. But the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited’s group managing director and chief executive officer, Mele Kyari, has said that petrol will sell for between N320 and N340 per litre from February 2022. It is, therefore, no prediction that PMS will sell at a higher price next year, and there will be labour unrest. But the government says it will give N5,000 to 40 million Nigerians to cushion the effect.
Labour has an entirely different view. The President of NLC, Ayuba Wabba says: “The concept of accepting deregulation hook, line and sinker,anchored on import-driven price models is not something that we will accept. We have said that without mincing words. If you are pushing down our throat to accept deregulation based on importation, basically, there will be no end to a price increase. Saying that once you deregulate without having the capacity to refine for domestic use will bring down the price of PMS is not correct. When the price of crude oil was almost at zero level, the price of two items that were deregulated never came down, diesel and kerosene. In fact, they kept going up. By the market fundamentals, marketers are out there to make maximum profit, and usually they would collude and that is what would happen to Nigeria, if we accept that policy, hook, line and sinker,” he averred.
Wabba said, except the value of naira is stabilized, anything imported will affect the larger economy and the cost of goods and services. He said the price of fuel could hit N408 per litre. He insisted that any price hike will trigger inflation in every sector. Meanwhile, government says the regime of subsidy, where, according Minister of State for Labour, Festus Keyamo, it spends N200 billion every month, is not sustainable. The real problem is that oil is not being refined in Nigeria, which implies that importation will continue. Labour insists that deregulation based on importation is not right, given that price is bound to maintain an upward swing on account of weak currency. When will the refineries work? That is a question whose answer is hanging in the air. Government said its finances have come to the lowest ebb because it was spending too much on subsidy. There is a ding-dong; 2022 is bound to see labour unrest, which may take a toll on the economy. The President would not be quick to buckle under such unrest given that he is not about to face the polls anymore. He is determined to solve this problem that has driven him to resort to loans. But if Nigeria fails to refine oil, there will be no end to fuel price hike. Maybe Dangote’s upcoming refinery will come to the rescue, but at what cost? So, deregulation or working refineries, which should come first? Let’s get set to welcome 2022.