FitchSolutions has somehow streamlined the 2023 presidential election for Nigerians and narrowed it down to a choice in favour of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) only. Though the group does not have the final say in what becomes of elections, it has, however, helped Nigerians to sieve the wheat from the chaff. By its warning that a Bola Ahmed Tinubu victory in the next February election would spell doom for Nigerians, FitchSolutions only brought Nigerians back to the scriptural provision at Deuteronomy 30:15 which says, “Today I am giving you a choice between good and evil, between life and death,” as per Good News translation. The question is: who sees a raging fire and jumps into it?
Part of the reason everyone now needs to be worried about the FitchSolutions postulation is its further warning that a Tinubu victory would mean a continuation of the policies of the All Progressives Congress (APC). It says: “A victory for Tinubu would probably not result in a significant shift in Nigerian economic policymaking.” In other words, Nigerians would be further burdened by the failed economic policies of the APC. These are policies that literally destroyed Nigeria and devastated the businesses and livelihood of Nigerians. They include the policy on showing fraternal courtesies to terrorists masquerading as bandits and herdsmen, as well as that which sought to force the implementation of cattle grazing settlements, reserves, routes, or RUGA on the people. They also involve a continuation of the policy on the devaluation of the naira and systematic crippling of the economy, which has spread poverty around the country like the flu. The policies include those that segregate Nigerians through the implementation of nepotism and collective narcissism. This is in direct contrast to the unifying edge that Atiku Abubakar and Ifeanyi Okowa offer. That unifying edge is what Nigerians now need to galvanise their diversity for positive nation-building actions.
In reviewing 14 elections around the world, FitchSolutions warned that “we anticipate that the incumbent government or ruling party will remain in office, but with potentially reduced public support or majorities, owing to rising voter dissatisfaction with adverse economic conditions” and, “even if governments remain in situ, they will face greater challenges in implementing reforms as economic difficulties persist.”
This should worry Nigerians more than people of other nations concerned because the economic conditions now prevalent in the country are more perilous than in other countries. These are economic conditions that have forced thousands of Nigerian youths to seek greener shelter elsewhere, forcing other nations to implement stiffer immigration and visa rules against Nigerians. While the economic-induced exodus worries investors, it doesn’t seem to bother the government because it can no longer find solutions to the problems it created through the adoption of policies that have clearly failed.
Perhaps, what appears the most disturbing of the FitchSolutions predictions is its report that “a win for Tinubu would break with this unwritten tradition and likely fuel sentiment of perceived marginalisation among Christians”. This will be a direct consequence of the same-faith ticket, which the APC had adopted in total, and irresponsible, disregard for the country’s religious diversity. This action is fuelling discontent in mixed-faith communities across the country. Many people expect these discontents to blow into open confrontation with a Tinubu victory as envisaged by Fitch. Those who believe that this is inevitable have also alleged that the huge ransoms paid to terrorists have assisted them in weapons acquisition in readiness. This fear is heightened by the open discontent, which Christian communities in the north of Nigeria have shown with the same-faith ticket.
The same-faith ticket is an irresponsible provocation by its promoters. It works against the spirit of inclusion in Nigeria’s political life and has the capacity to trigger a revolt that may balkanize Nigeria’s federation and create a splinter of independent countries in the process. This is why Tinubu’s mission to the presidency is suspect as having publicly declared in an interview, on ThisDay of April 11, 1997, that he does not believe in the Nigerian federation, he may find 2023 the best opportunity to execute his mindset. Recall that he also ignored a call on him by an APC chieftain in Plateau State, Saleh Mandung Zazzaga, to apologize to Nigerians for saying he does not believe in one Nigeria. Zazzaga had said: “The most honourable thing for Tinubu to do is to come out and apologise to Nigerians on the comments which he made before this democratic dispensation which began in 1999, and he should as well explain the rationale of the interview to Nigerians and point out if he was misquoted or not. Whatever his explanation would be, at least it will calm people’s nerves and save the party from being projected in a bad light.”
This is also coming on the backdrop of the anti-restructuring mindset of Tinubu’s running mate, Kashim Shettima. The Boko Haram-era governor of Borno State, had, in a video that went viral on social media, declared his aversion toward proper organisation and fixing of Nigeria when he dismissed the call for restructuring as nonsensical. Shettima said: “Unfortunately, the topic and issue in Nigeria is restructuring. Restructuring my foot! To hell with restructuring.”
Meanwhile, the clamour across Nigeria is for a proper restructuring that would help to cure injustices that have kept the country down and fuelled youth rebellion.
This should actually be a major concern for Nigerians. As humans, we should worry when people who do not like us suddenly start being kind to us. This is exactly what the gospel meant in Matthew 11:15 when it said, “He who has ears, let him hear.” For now, FitchSolutions has actually solved a major headache for Nigerians by presenting them with an early warning. Global best practices have always been to present nations and people with early warning when disaster is about to hit them. We see that a lot in places that are prone to disasters earthquakes and floods. In the recent flood in Nigeria, the meteorological services warned and asked would-be victims to relocate to safer grounds. That is what early warning does: enable people and nations to prepare and take precautionary steps to either prevent or mitigate the effects of impending disaster. Fitch has done just that for Nigerians, and freely too.
This warning must be taken seriously, considering that many Nigerians who warned against voting APC in 2015 eventually were vindicated. Many of those who insisted on APC, and convinced others to follow suit, have come back to the same people with the had-I-known narrative. Therefore, Nigerians need not dismiss the FitchSolutions warning. It is deep and foretells a lot about the future of the country. A stitch in time saves nine, they say. To be forewarned is to be forearmed.
Fitch also in its October analysis on Nigeria stated that “Nigeria’s current account will flip and from a short-lived surplus in 2022 back to a deficit in 2023”. I do not think that this is a trend that the majority of Nigerians would want to continue with.