The issue at stake revolves primarily around the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and, secondarily but significantly, around the northern elite and their vehement opposition to power shift.
The PDP, owing to the personal ambitions of some powerful northern elements within its fold, has been very reluctant to embrace zoning since after the 2019 general election. In 2015, when it lost power to the newly formed All Progressives Congress (APC), the PDP was quick to announce that it had zoned the 2019 presidential ticket to the North. The decision was without prompting. It was made on the spur of the moment obviously in response to the mood of the moment. Power had gone to the North through the ascension of Muhammadu Buhari as President and the PDP felt that the only way it could topple the APC in the next election was to field a northern candidate who would neutralize and override Buhari’s hold on power. The PDP, in line with its strategic objective, put up a good fight in the 2019 presidential election, but it was held down by manipulative incumbency.
Some eight years after PDP’s loss of power, the party, again acting under the influence of ambitious northerners at the commanding heights of its affairs, is still highly predisposed to retaining its presidential ticket in the North.
It is this pro-North tendency that the party is grappling with at the moment.
Cognizant of the fact that an outright declaration, such as the one it made in 2015, that it is zoning the presidency to the North would spark off some row within its fold, the PDP chose to say that it would throw the presidential ticket open to both the north and south of the country. But that nebulous stance has not been well received. This is because those concerned know that non-zoning is a clever way of ceding the presidential ticket to the North.
Buffeted on all fronts by that unpopular pronouncement, the PDP leadership, in the bid to divert attention from the issue, set up a committee to look into the vexed issue of zoning. The committee, led by the governor of Benue State, Samuel Ortom, has since submitted its report to the National Executive Committee of the party. But apparently in furtherance of its anti-zoning disposition, the party’s leadership decided not to make public the decision of the committee it set up. It has remained silent on the issue and has gone ahead to entertain and accept every aspirant, irrespective of region. Only a few days ago, the party screened all its 17 presidential aspirants from the north and south of the country. By that action, the PDP has thrown its presidential ticket open without making a declarative statement on it. This is open air trickery.
But can the PDP convert this sleight of hand to advantage? That is the nagging question before watchers of the 2023 presidential race.
Those who make permutations for PDP have an argument. They believe that the APC will field a southern presidential candidate. The thinking within PDP inner circle is that a northern PDP presidential candidate will defeat a southern APC presidential candidate in an election. PDP’s calculation is hinged on the belief that the assumed numerical strength of the North will come into play here. In other words, the PDP strategists behind this thinking are saying that the voting pattern in the election will not go along party lines. Rather, it is expected that ethnicity and region will play a deciding and decisive role at the polls. How right is PDP and those making the calculations for it? The answer to this question lies in the bowels of time.
This brings us to our second point of concern here, which is the vehement opposition of the northern elite to power shift to the South. The stance of the northern establishment in this matter seems to suggest that it shares the simplistic belief that a southern APC presidential candidate will lose to a northern PDP presidential candidate in 2023. What is to be deduced from this thinking is that the North is amused at the plan of the APC to field a southerner as its presidential standard-bearer in 2023. If this is the case, then President Buhari’s effort towards producing his successor becomes a fluke. It is mere window-dressing. The larger implication of this is that there is deceit in the air. While the PDP is busy trying to mask its real intentions, APC’s plan to shift power to the South is sheer make-belief. It is programmed to fail.
While we strive to make sense out of the thick plot of conspiracy that is brewing within the camps of the two major political parties, the hypocritical stance of the northern elite on zoning cannot be overlooked. The Northern Elders’ Forum (NEF), whose chairman is Prof. Ango Abdullahi, has said that it does not accept zoning of the presidency because it runs against the grain of democracy. Its position is that democracy is about free choice. Those who will emerge as leaders will be freely chosen by the people. They should not emerge through compromise, which is what zoning promotes.
The argument has merit. But it cannot withstand historical scrutiny. Zoning is not new in Nigerian politics. It took place in 1999 when the South-West produced a Nigerian President in Olusegun Obasanjo. It also took place in 2019 when the North was given the exclusive right through the two main political parties to produce the country’s President. On these two occasions, we did not hear anybody or group, including the NEF, complain about the arrangement not being democratic. So, what is going on now? Why has the normal suddenly become abnormal?
The anti-zoning crowd is working hard to push their way through. If they succeed, it will mean that the South of the country is perpetually endangered politically. Whereas the North could vote as a political bloc whenever it needs to protect its strategic political interest, the South will always be fractured because what sounds attractive to the South-West politically may sound repulsive to the South-East and vice versa. This permanent divide between the two regional blocs has always given the North political advantage over the South. But is northern political dominance over the South, which is what the opposition to zoning promotes, sustainable? This is the crux of the matter. We can say that the death of zoning in Nigerian politics has become imminent. But at what cost? Can Nigeria withstand the backlash?